So far, the yen hasn’t seen much demand as a haven amid the war between Israel and Iran. Some expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan might call for a single hike to 0.75% on 31 July while the Bank of England seems likely to cut to 4% in August. Regardless how rates move over the summer, it seems very likely that the differential in rates will shrink further by the end of the year.
The false breakout on 16 and 17 June seems to strengthen the area of ¥196.50 as a possible resistance, but strong intraday gains on 19 June might suggest that there could be another attempt on this possible resistance soon. There’s no obvious trend on the daily chart but the weekly trend is clearly sideways. 18-19 June forms a near engulfing pattern, which could also suggest upward momentum to come.
Dynamic support might come from the value area between the 50 SMA from Bands and the 200 SMA. The latter has been tested repeatedly and unsuccessfully since last month. Given a relatively low ATR and volume, continuation within the range might be more likely than a sustained upward breakout, but that also depends on the general situation in markets. With no top data from either Britain or Japan until 11 July, traders will probably continue to watch news of tariffs and the Israeli-Iranian war.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
The false breakout on 16 and 17 June seems to strengthen the area of ¥196.50 as a possible resistance, but strong intraday gains on 19 June might suggest that there could be another attempt on this possible resistance soon. There’s no obvious trend on the daily chart but the weekly trend is clearly sideways. 18-19 June forms a near engulfing pattern, which could also suggest upward momentum to come.
Dynamic support might come from the value area between the 50 SMA from Bands and the 200 SMA. The latter has been tested repeatedly and unsuccessfully since last month. Given a relatively low ATR and volume, continuation within the range might be more likely than a sustained upward breakout, but that also depends on the general situation in markets. With no top data from either Britain or Japan until 11 July, traders will probably continue to watch news of tariffs and the Israeli-Iranian war.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.