Good Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment:
Spoiler: Bears could not. Another gap down and bear trap. It’s sad but the reality. Don’t expect strong bears all of the sudden.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 22000 - 23100
bull case: Bulls defended 22800 which is still as bullish as it gets. Don’t make it more complicated than it is. We are going sideways under the ath, can print a new one any given day. Since I don’t have any targets above 23100ish, I won’t make stuff up here. I only wait for the profit taking to begin to look for shorts.
Invalidation is below 22700.
bear case: Bears are sad. Need a daily close below 22700. If they prevent bulls from printing a new ath above 23111, I would be surprised. No need to write more here until we see much much bigger selling pressure.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral. Bears not doing enough and bulls going sideways under ath. No interest in buying, so I am neutral until big bears come around.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again.
trade of the day: Long the double bottom above 22800 or the retest on US open around 22830. Bears failed to print consecutive good looking 30m/1h bear bars, so a reversal was the most likely outcome after the double bottom.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment:
The biggest surprise for next week would be a huge gap down Sunday futures open and having that gap stay open. If bears could actually do something like that and trap all bulls who bought above 22600, that would be amazing.
Spoiler: Bears could not. Another gap down and bear trap. It’s sad but the reality. Don’t expect strong bears all of the sudden.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 22000 - 23100
bull case: Bulls defended 22800 which is still as bullish as it gets. Don’t make it more complicated than it is. We are going sideways under the ath, can print a new one any given day. Since I don’t have any targets above 23100ish, I won’t make stuff up here. I only wait for the profit taking to begin to look for shorts.
Invalidation is below 22700.
bear case: Bears are sad. Need a daily close below 22700. If they prevent bulls from printing a new ath above 23111, I would be surprised. No need to write more here until we see much much bigger selling pressure.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral. Bears not doing enough and bulls going sideways under ath. No interest in buying, so I am neutral until big bears come around.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again.
trade of the day: Long the double bottom above 22800 or the retest on US open around 22830. Bears failed to print consecutive good looking 30m/1h bear bars, so a reversal was the most likely outcome after the double bottom.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.