SPY: Bearish Gamma Pin Threatens Breakdown – What to Watch This Week 🧨
🔸 GEX-Based Options Sentiment (Tanuki GEX Zone)
* GEX Summary:
* Highest Call Wall (Resistance): 625–628 → strong resistance zone.
* Highest Put Wall (Support): 618 → major gamma defense line.
* GEX Flip Zone / NETGEX Support: around 620, where negative gamma begins accelerating downside moves.
* Current GEX Bias: Bearish
* GEX: 🔴
* IVR: 9.8 (very low)
* PUTs %: 51.1% (risk off bias)
* Call walls stack above, forming a clear ceiling.
* Interpretation & Options Strategy:
* As long as SPY trades below 625, the call resistance stack and bearish gamma exposure favor PUT buyers.
* Breakdown below 620 may trigger an acceleration to 617 and even 615 where deeper PUT walls exist.
* Avoid calls until SPY reclaims and holds 626.88+.
* ✅ Suggested Options Play (Bearish Bias):
* PUT 620p / 618p, 0DTE–2DTE if under 623.
* Stop if price holds and reclaims 625.50+ with volume.
🟦 1H Chart Analysis – Price Action, SMC, and Trade Setups
* Market Structure:
* After the recent BOS, price formed a tight rising wedge, then broke CHOCH and now sits inside a retest box.
* This shows distribution behavior and vulnerability to breakdown.
* A clear CHOCH + BOS sequence is already completed on the 1H.
* Current Range & Zones:
* Consolidation Box: 621.50–625.50
* Trendline Support (lower channel): 621–620
* Demand Zone (H1): 617–618
* Critical Liquidity Below: 615–613.50
* Trade Setup – Scalp/Swing View: Bearish Scenario (More Likely):
* 🔻 Entry: Under 623 with confirmation
* 📉 Target 1: 620
* 📉 Target 2: 617.50
* ❌ SL: 625.50
* 📈 Optional hedge/reversal: Flip long if 626.88 reclaims (very aggressive).
* Bullish Scenario (Low Probability unless reclaim):
* ✅ Entry: Above 627
* 🎯 Target 1: 629–630
* ❌ SL: Below 625
🧠 Final Thoughts:
* SPY is currently sitting in a gamma trap zone, where it’s pinned between major put support (620) and call resistance (625+).
* If price slips below 620, gamma forces could rapidly drive it to 617–615 zone.
* Until we see strength above 626.88, the path of least resistance remains down.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage risk properly before trading.
🔸 GEX-Based Options Sentiment (Tanuki GEX Zone)
* GEX Summary:
* Highest Call Wall (Resistance): 625–628 → strong resistance zone.
* Highest Put Wall (Support): 618 → major gamma defense line.
* GEX Flip Zone / NETGEX Support: around 620, where negative gamma begins accelerating downside moves.
* Current GEX Bias: Bearish
* GEX: 🔴
* IVR: 9.8 (very low)
* PUTs %: 51.1% (risk off bias)
* Call walls stack above, forming a clear ceiling.
* Interpretation & Options Strategy:
* As long as SPY trades below 625, the call resistance stack and bearish gamma exposure favor PUT buyers.
* Breakdown below 620 may trigger an acceleration to 617 and even 615 where deeper PUT walls exist.
* Avoid calls until SPY reclaims and holds 626.88+.
* ✅ Suggested Options Play (Bearish Bias):
* PUT 620p / 618p, 0DTE–2DTE if under 623.
* Stop if price holds and reclaims 625.50+ with volume.
🟦 1H Chart Analysis – Price Action, SMC, and Trade Setups
* Market Structure:
* After the recent BOS, price formed a tight rising wedge, then broke CHOCH and now sits inside a retest box.
* This shows distribution behavior and vulnerability to breakdown.
* A clear CHOCH + BOS sequence is already completed on the 1H.
* Current Range & Zones:
* Consolidation Box: 621.50–625.50
* Trendline Support (lower channel): 621–620
* Demand Zone (H1): 617–618
* Critical Liquidity Below: 615–613.50
* Trade Setup – Scalp/Swing View: Bearish Scenario (More Likely):
* 🔻 Entry: Under 623 with confirmation
* 📉 Target 1: 620
* 📉 Target 2: 617.50
* ❌ SL: 625.50
* 📈 Optional hedge/reversal: Flip long if 626.88 reclaims (very aggressive).
* Bullish Scenario (Low Probability unless reclaim):
* ✅ Entry: Above 627
* 🎯 Target 1: 629–630
* ❌ SL: Below 625
🧠 Final Thoughts:
* SPY is currently sitting in a gamma trap zone, where it’s pinned between major put support (620) and call resistance (625+).
* If price slips below 620, gamma forces could rapidly drive it to 617–615 zone.
* Until we see strength above 626.88, the path of least resistance remains down.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage risk properly before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.