It is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule
Key Themes to Monitor This Week
Geopolitical Risks
Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite...
CPI day today. Scheduled to be released at 7:30 AM CT.
CME:6E1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1!
ES futures edged slightly higher after positive commentary from US-China trade talks. The delegations from both sides agreed on a framework to move forward with negotiations.
It is important to note that...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Fundamentals and Economic Calendar
Data Recap:
• Friday: 06/06/2025
o US Non-Farm Payrolls (May) 139k vs. Exp. 130k (Prev. 177k, Rev. 147k)
o US Unemployment Rate (May) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
o US Average Earnings YY (May) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.8%, Rev. 3.9%)
• Overnight Monday: 06/09/2025
o Chinese Trade Balance...
CME_MINI:ES1!
• What has the market done?
ES futures are lagging compared to tech heavy index NQ futures. ES futures are still below yearly open. Yearly open has been a strong area of resistance since the rally of April 6th Lows in futures complex.
• What is it trying to do?
ES futures are in consolidation mode, building value higher. VPOC has shifted...
Although there is a headline fatigue and markets have been stabilizing with the worst of trade war story behind us, the fact is that uncertainty still looms. President Trump announced over the weekend that he will double down on US steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% effective June 4th.
Highlight this week is US Jobs data this Friday. A key point to...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
Big Picture Context: .
NQ futures rallied after NVIDIA posted an earnings beat and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.
Goldman Sachs noted that the ruling on Liberation Day tariffs gives the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection, but does not affect sectoral...
CBOT:ZN1!
US Yield Curve in Image Above
Showing yields on May 27, 2024 vs May 27, 2025 . What happened in a year and how to understand this?
Looking at the image above, the yield curve was inverted on this day last year. Comparing last year’s term structure to today’s, we can see that the yield curve has steepened sharply.
What does this...
COMEX:GC1!
Gold remains in a strong uptrend on the higher time frames, having recently broken above the $3000 level. This move sets the stage for further upside potential. The chart below highlights a Megaphone chart pattern, signaling volatility and broad price swings.
On the 4-hour chart, a pennant pattern is emerging within the uptrend, marked by a...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Recap
Late Friday, Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1. This reflects a unanimous downgrade of the US, joining S&P and Fitch in stripping the US of its AAA status.
Would this result in a sell-off?
In our analysis, and consensus from the Street, is that it will be contained since the downgrade puts Moody’s in the same...
Our Long trade idea has already reached its target at 5921.75 in ES futures.
If you missed it, here’s a link to our article from the start of the week:
Note that, our entry was at 5861, while our stop was at 5837 in the example trade idea. The maximum low price was 5835.75 during Monday’s overnight session. Our stops could have been filled given this, however,...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Pointing to our previously written blog post (Liberation, Altercation or Doom) on March 31st. A mix of all scenarios played out.
Global universal tariffs with reciprocal tariffs layered on top. It resulted in a huge sell-off on April 2nd.
After months of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing economic friction, the US and China have agreed to hit...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Big Picture Context
Please see related trade idea.
In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully.
See chart image below reviewing...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Recent Market Performance
ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th...
This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month.
The Federal Reserve is currently in its...
CME:6B1!
This trade idea is built on very simple premises.
Simplicity in trading is what we all strive for. Where possible, we should aim to simplify our strategies rather than complicate them with excessive information—unless the additional inputs add clear, actionable value to the trade thesis. While that holds true in this analysis, for the sake of clarity...
NYMEX:CL1!
In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil...
CBOT:ZN1!
COMEX:GC1!
CME:6E1!
CME:6J1!
US Bond Market:
The US bond market—specifically US 10-year Notes—has long been considered a safe haven amid market turmoil. Historically, during periods of uncertainty, investors have flocked to these “flight to safety” assets, resulting in increased demand for US 10-year notes. Mortgage rates also tend to...
