AUD/USD is grinding higher towards downtrend resistance dating back to the middle of 2023, putting traders on alert for a potential bullish breakout to multi-year highs.
Adding to the potential bullish setup, MACD and RSI (14) continue to provide bullish signals on momentum. As indicated on the bottom pane, the rolling 10-day negative correlation between AUD/USD...
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is often followed closely by sophisticated traders, but new traders often seem to overlook it. In today’s TradingView educational post, we’ll explain what NFPs are and why they matter.
The NFP report is a crucial monthly indicator that shows the net number of jobs added in the U.S. during the previous month, excluding those...
Despite the Fed's outsized rate cut in mid-week, the USD/JPY and other yen crosses have rebounded this week.
The yen has been undermined by the ongoing risk-on trade in equities space. Today saw JPY fall further after the BoJ turned out to be more dovish at its rate decision and press conference than expected.
As a result, the USD/JPY is on the verge of...
It's been a rather clean topside move in GBP/USD since last week's test at the 1.3000 level, with the pair gaining as much as 338 pips from those lows.
There has been some help on the fundamental side, of course, with the Fed cutting by 50 bps and the BoE holding steady.
But, from a price action perspective I think this pair is still a more attractive venue...
Gold has extended its post-FOMC support bounce and the second test at 2600 didn't cause bulls the same trouble that the first did.
The challenge now is chasing the pair after a fresh yearly high, with daily RSI nearing overbought and weekly already well in that territory.
This, of course, doesn't mean that the trend is done. But - it does highlight the fact...
AUD/USD has been one of the more responsive pairs for themes of USD-weakness since the August 5th spike.
That low from early-August was a bounce point for v-shaped reversal, which pushed price up to a major level at .6824 that held the highs. The pullback from that resistance was a clean 38.2% retracement of the move, which held the lows and propelled another...
The week opened with pain in USD/JPY as the pair tested below the 140.00 level for the first time in a year. But, as looked at in these notes, USD/JPY held support at a big spot of longer-term interest, from 139.28-140.30, and prices started to bounce.
There was then the slow and steady build of higher-lows in the pair, first with a 140.30 bounce and then on the...
The 2600 test in gold around FOMC yesterday was fast. And the response to that was heavy, with a $53 drop showing up soon after.
But the support zone from 2544-2550 held the lows and buyers got back-in, making another push towards the big figure that, so far, has failed.
While this does add question to shorter-term momentum the bigger item of interest is how...
It's been a fast move in GBP/USD since the 1.3000 test last Wednesday.
I looked at the pair again earlier this week after it had rallied up to a trendline produced by August and hat was at the time, September swing highs. At that point, I shifted the focus to support at the 1.3143-1.3161 area, which held and led into a bounce at the outset of yesterday's FOMC...
If we’re about to see investor risk appetite improve markedly, there are worse trades to have on than long AUD/JPY.
It’s had a strong bounce today, helped initially by rising US bonds yields propelling USD/JPY higher before another bumper Australian jobs report reinforced the view the RBA may not need to cut interest rates this year.
The bounce from 96.223 has...
The initial reaction in gold to the rate cut announcement was strong, with bulls pushing up for a test of the 2600 level. But that didn't last for long and prices soon started a rather quick pullback. At this point there's already been a bounce from the 2544-2550 zone and that bounce has come on quickly.
Reading this, along with USD and USD/JPY, through the...
Gold weekly RSI has pushed back into overbought territory following the ECB-fueled breakout from last week.
With the Fed set to start a cutting cycle that could potentially last for years, there's been a strong bid behind gold as the prospect of a 50 bp cut has started to get more attention.
Nonetheless chasing this higher at this point could be a challenge...
USD/JPY rebounded off key support yesterday at 140.25-141.02 - a region defined by the December low, the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance, and the objective yearly open. Looking for a reaction off this mark with the Fed on tap later today.
Initial resistance 143.31 backed by near-term bearish invalidation at 145.62-146.42 . A breach / close above this...
USD/JPY falls ahead of the Fed rate decision where the US central bank is expected to cut rates for the first time in 4 years. But by how much? The market prices in a 64% chance of a 50 bps cut. An outsized cut could send USD lower.
USD/JPY trades below its falling trendline. It has recovered from the 2024 low of 139.60 but failed to rise above the 1000 SMA on the...
GBP/USD rises after hotter than expected service sector inflation data. While headline CPI remained at 2.2%, services & core inflation were hotter than expected, supporting the view the BoE will keep rates unchanged tomorrow. Further gains in GBP/USD could come if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps later today.
GBP/USD trades above its rising trendline; the price has...
Nikkei futures look like a market where bulls and bears are waging war, all while the price continues to coil up within a symmetrical triangle, waiting for a potential explosive break.
The sizeable wicks on the daily candles suggests the collective market hasn’t made up its mind yet, although having entered the triangle from above, the inclination is that...
USD/MXN approaches the 50-Day SMA (18.9615) as it slips to a fresh monthly low (19.0919), with a break/close below 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension) bringing the 18.5090 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 18.6330 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around the August low (18.4291) but USD/MXN may track the positive slope in...
While the world waits for the Fed to kick off their cutting cycle, there's been some very strong moves showing in Yen-pairs. GBP/JPY remains especially elevated on a longer-term basis and the Bank of England hasn't exactly been hawkish of late.
There was a 2,800 pip sell-off in July-August and the bounce from that was intense, even if it couldn't quite make it...
