Riskier asset classes are starting to wobble following the sharp rebound from April’s lows. With signs the correlation between U.S. bonds and the dollar is strengthening again, it suggests the ‘sell America’ trade may be creeping back into favour—potentially an environment where the euro outperforms higher beta currencies.
With EUR/AUD testing horizontal...
The EUR/USD sell-off took a big step forward on Monday. Before that, we had a break of a descending triangle as sellers finally took out the Fibonacci level at 1.1275. But sellers weren't able to make much ground below 1.1200 last week and the breakdown remained short-lived until sellers took control on Monday. As I wrote in the post on Monday, chasing the pair...
USD/JPY came into the week with a full head of steam, testing above the 148 level after having found support at 145 last Friday. The pullback on Tuesday was pronounced, helped along by a weak U.S. CPI report, but so far USD/JPY and USD bulls have stepped up at key spots of support. In DXY, prior neckline resistance from the inverse head and shoulders pattern has...
USD came into the week with a full head of steam as price broke out to the 102.00 level on Monday. This was pushed by a strong move in USD/JPY testing 148 and EUR/USD testing 1.1100 - but then the Tuesday CPI report came out soft and that gave bulls reason to take profits on the USD.
That pullback ran vividly into early-Wednesday trade but at that point, support...
USD/JPY extended more than 6.2% off the yearly low with price registering an intraday high at 148.65 on Monday before reversing lower. The focus now shifts back to this turn from downtrend resistance with initial support now in view.
A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of embedded ascending pitchfork extending off...
AUD/JPY snaps the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week after struggling to test the March high (95.75).
In turn, AUD/JPY may continue to give back the advance from the start of the week, with a move/close below the 92.80 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 93.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) zone bringing the monthly low (91.42) on the...
NZD/USD gives back the rebound from earlier this week to hold below the monthly high (0.6023), and lack of momentum to hold above the 0.5900 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.5930 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push the exchange rate towards 0.5820 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
Next area of interest comes in around 0.5740 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement)...
GBP/JPY pulls back ahead of the January high (198.26) to halt a five-day rally, with the recent weakness in the exchange rate keeping the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70.
Lack of momentum to push above the 195.70 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 196.60 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push GBP/JPY towards the weekly low (193.39), with a break/close...
The recent rally in the price of oil seems to be stalling as it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week.
In turn, crude may give back the advance from the weekly low ($61.02), with a break/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone bringing the monthly low ($55.30)...
Gold has been trending lower amid growing risk appetite with stocks surging higher.
With no big bearish catalyst in sight for stocks, the market mood is optimistic and that means the pressure on gold is growing for a drop. The big macro driver has been a thaw in US-China trade tensions. With tariff rollbacks on both sides and negotiations showing real progress,...
1.1200 is the key level to watch for traders, with price action around it likely to provide better guidance than the barrage of conflicting macro takes doing the rounds right now. If the price remains below it, establish shorts with a stop above it for protection, and vice versa if the opposite occurs.
Even with Tuesday's snapback, the edge still leans slightly...
Price marked an outside-weekly reversal off key support last week with USD/CAD rallying more than 1.9% off the lows. The advance is now testing initial resistance hurdles at 1.3962/97 - a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high, and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range.
The immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark with key...
Over the past five trading sessions, the EUR/JPY pair has climbed nearly 2% in favor of the euro, once again reaching a key resistance zone in the short term. For now, the bullish bias remains intact, driven by the weakened yen, which has lost demand in recent sessions. As a safe-haven currency, the yen has struggled to hold investor interest as trade tensions...
The GBP/USD sold off Monday on the back of the US-China trade truce, which lifted the dollar. Today, we saw a rebound in major currency pairs including the cable. But was Monday's price action following the weekend developments a game changer?
I think it was, and feel the US dollar has more room to the upside. For that reason, I am expecting the GBPUSD to hold...
As shown in chart above, price action is hovering near the neckline of a well-defined double top pattern, formed between December 2024 and February 2025, similarly across the Dow and SPX500 charts.
This reinforces a key resistance zone that could either validate a more sustainable bullish outlook into 2025 — or trigger another correction if rejected.
Nasdaq...
In line with the inverted head and shoulders formation seen on the DXY from its 2025 lows, EURUSD has completed a breakout of its own head and shoulders pattern, reaching the 1.1070 target.
With the 4H RSI rebounding from oversold territory, a bullish bounce for EURUSD appears likely toward the 1.1140 level.
A clean hold above this resistance could extend gains...
GBP/JPY has been on a run with more than 1,000 pips gained on the pair from the April 9th low around the 185.00 handle. There's been a few different clean setups, as well, such as the ascending triangle when the 190.00 level was holding as resistance, and then support.
The BoJ rate decision helped to prod JPY weakness and then there's been widespread...
Along with other risk assets, crude oil has had a positive day, albeit a much quieter one compared to the major indices. It has been held back in part by the dollar also finding good support. So, I think a large part of the rally today in WTI is just a function of the market pricing in higher demand because of lower tariffs. Thus, it is the removal of a bearish...
