While so much attention from equity and index traders has recently been on US election trades and the flow-on effect into markets from Trump 2.0, attention now switches towards Nvidia and the volatility that is expected from its Q325 earnings.
As many who have traded Nvidia’s prior earnings will attest, earnings are historically where big moves play out on the...
For traders following GBP/USD and GBP/EUR, today’s UK budget rollout might be impactful. The Labour government’s plan introduces a £40 billion tax increase and invests in infrastructure—moves that could shape the pound’s trajectory. While the fiscal measures aim to strengthen public finances, they may exert near-term pressure on GBP, potentially affecting growth...
Gold. The word alone carries a certain weight. For centuries, it has held a place not just in our vaults but in our hearts, symbolising wealth, power, and security. But why, in a world of ever-evolving financial markets and digital assets, does gold continue to hold such an emotional appeal for investors? And more importantly, what are the risks we may overlook?
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Tesla’s Q3 earnings report surprised Wall Street, with the electric vehicle (EV) giant posting a 9% increase in profit*, surpassing expectations. Despite revenue coming in slightly below forecast, Tesla’s stock surged over 12% in after-hours trading. Elon Musk’s bullish tone during the earnings call added to the positive sentiment, as investors focused on Tesla’s...
While Nvidia is constantly making headlines for its stock performance, what really makes the company exciting is how its technology is shaping the future in ways most of us might not realise. Beyond just computer chips, Nvidia is building the brains behind some of the coolest advancements in artificial intelligence (AI)—from self-driving cars to smarter healthcare...
One-way traders can look at expected volatility and movement in the S&P500 over the US election volatility is by looking at the premium or the differential that VIX October futures hold over VIX November futures.
Because the VIX index takes in a series of S&P500 options strikes that blend to create a 30-day implied volatility, the October VIX futures essentially...
It’s a huge week ahead by way of event risk for traders to navigate positions over – traders, therefore, need to be aware of key timings and consider the possibility for volatility and if there is a skew in the directional risk when the market learns of the outcome. That is typically a function of reviewing expectations and the outcome relative to what is ‘priced...
We’ve seen some selling of gold in early Asia trade today, but after a solid 2.8% rally last week the gold bulls really needed follow-through selling in the USD to push the price into $2400 - the surprise second-round French election outcome is certainly curbing interest to buy EURs today and that is limiting moves in the USD.
The tailwinds do suggest pullbacks...
Taking a short-term view, the oil market feels delicately poised and what happens over the next 24-48 hours could be very telling for the near-term passage of play.
After a near 14% rally from the 4 June lows, which took price through the May range highs of $80.91, and after a huge bullish position adjustment in both Brent and WTI futures, we’ve seen price pull...
• Month and quarter-end flows to impact price action
• The US Presidential elections kick up a gear
• Managing risk around the French 1st round vote
• US Core PCE is the marquee data point of the week
• Australia's monthly CPI a potential kicker for the AUD
• Central bank meetings due this week
• Long MXN back in vogue
For the week ahead there is a fair...
The oil market has the wind to its back as we head into the Northern Hemisphere Summer, with WTI crude having rallied 13% since the 4 June lows. The rally from $72 has seen price retrace a decent portion of the falls seen between April and June - which resulted in the market running one of the most bearish positions we’ve seen in years. Clearly, the demand side of...
The big picture on gold is that price is in wait-and-see mode, and assessing what comes next in US economic trends, Fed policy and EM central bank gold purchases. The clearly defined range of $2430 to $2285 reflects this patient stance, although, within the $145 range, there are moves being made that traders are capitalizing on. Still, I expect we’ll see these...
• Key event risks for the week ahead.
• Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week.
• Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight.
• US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported.
• Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire.
The key event risks for traders this week
We...
Due to report shortly after market close on 22 May (typically 06:20 AEST / 21:20 UK).
“The most important stock in the world” - That was the label given to Nvidia (NVDA) throughout February as we geared up for its highly anticipated Q424 earnings results. Where, at the time, the sheer number of articles written on the stock was incredible – when you are a...
Everyone is talking about the moves in the FTSE100, but the ASX200 is having a moment - we see solid rate of change, the index is still no where near overbought, and we see 4 days of rising range expansion. Momentum is clearly to the upside, which suggests dips should well supported and shallow - hard to be short on timeframes 4hr+ and favour this higher but a...
While we await earnings from Nvidia (on 22 May) that will be influential on future market direction, we move into the tail-end of US quarterly earnings, but also past a dovish Fed meeting, a strong US ECI report and weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and 2 hefty bouts of MoF/BoJ intervention.
Yet, despite these landmines, a gentle calm descends over...
We move on from a week where strong momentum markets (AI names, NAS100, JPN225, Mexican peso) were sold down hard, with traders better buyers of the VIX, US30, gold, CHF, USD, and defensive equities (utilities).
Notably, the NAS100 recorded its worst week since November 2022, driven in part by market players part-liquidating an incredibly extended position in...
The dollar remains on the front foot, with the buck benefitting from haven flows amid rising geopolitical risk, as well as the continued outperformance of the US economy; both being factors which point to further upside remaining on the cards.
The greenback has continued to gain ground of late, with the USD rallying to fresh YTD highs against a basket of peers -...
