Trump Tightens Immigration: Bans people from 12 countries, limits entry from 7 more, and blocks foreign students from attending Harvard.
Russia-Ukraine Tensions: Putin plans to strike back after a Ukrainian drone attack. Trump says Russia’s allies won’t profit from rebuilding Ukraine.
UK Housing Boom: Home sales rose 6% in May, the strongest in 3+ years, despite...
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today, lowering the deposit rate to 2.00%. While this move is largely priced in, what matters for markets—especially EUR/JPY—is the forward guidance.
Relevance to EUR/JPY:
Rate Cut = EUR Bearish: Lower rates reduce euro appeal, especially vs. the yen, which is still heavily influenced by the Bank...
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, bringing the deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.00%. This marks the first rate cut since 2019 and is a clear signal that the ECB is shifting from its aggressive inflation-fighting stance toward more growth-supportive policy.
Why It Matters for EUR Traders:
Rate Cut = EUR...
Trend Overview:
The DAX Index remains in a bullish trend, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The broader structure continues to favor the upside, although recent intraday price action suggests a sideways consolidation, signaling a potential pause within the prevailing uptrend.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: 23680 (key pivot),...
Economic Data Releases
United States
April trade deficit widened.
Initial jobless claims due today.
ISM Manufacturing PMI for May remains below 50, indicating contraction.
China
Caixin Services PMI (May): 51.1 (up from 50.7).
Composite PMI fell to 49.6, showing overall contraction.
Japan
May Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 (up from 48.7), slower...
Today’s key focus is on U.S. jobs and services data, and the Fed’s tone.
Markets will react to signs of inflation, growth and the Feds speech which could indicate a shift in direction of its core policy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22040
Resistance Level 2: 22250
Resistance Level 3: 22690
Support Level 1: 22330
Support Level 2:...
Trend: Overall bearish sentiment continues, in line with the dominant downtrend.
Recent Price Action: The market is in a sideways consolidation, signaling indecision after recent declines.
Key Levels
Resistance:
6700 – Main resistance and pivot level.
Above that: 6860, then 7000 – Upside targets if bullish breakout occurs.
Support:
6350 – Initial downside...
Trend: The sentiment remains bearish, in line with the prevailing downward trend.
Recent Movement: Price is currently in a sideways consolidation, suggesting indecision near short-term lows.
Key Levels
Resistance:
6360 – Key resistance and prior consolidation zone.
Above that: 6440, then 6530 – Next upside targets if breakout occurs.
Support:
6020 – Initial...
Today’s key focus is on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Markets will react to signs of inflation, growth, or central bank policy shifts.
Q1 Labor Productivity: Tracks efficiency of Canadian workers—important for inflation outlook.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates at 2.75% due to sticky inflation, even as the economy slows.
Key...
rend: Overall trend remains bullish, supported by rising price action.
Recent Movement: Price is in a sideways consolidation phase after a strong uptrend.
Key Levels
Support:
8680 – Key level from prior consolidation.
8625, then 8510 – Next supports if 8680 breaks.
Resistance:
8850 – First upside target.
8910, then 9020 – Further resistance levels on continued...
Key Economic Events – Wednesday, June 4, 2025
🇺🇸 U.S.
ADP Jobs Report (May): A preview of private job growth; markets watch this ahead of Friday's official jobs report.
ISM Services PMI (May): Measures health of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 = growth.
Fed Speakers: Bostic and Cook will speak—markets listen for interest rate hints.
Beige Book:...
Trade Tensions: US-China, US-Europe
Trump and Xi May Speak This Week: The call—if it happens—comes amid rising tensions over critical mineral exports, crucial for electronics and clean tech.
Market Implication: Ongoing uncertainty in US-China trade could pressure tech, EVs, and semiconductors, which rely on these materials. Watch for volatility in those...
The pair is in a bearish trend, with recent price action showing a bounce (oversold rally) that was rejected near 0.9430, a key resistance level from previous consolidation.
This rejection suggests sellers are still in control.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 0.9430 (key level), then 0.9500 and 0.9600 if broken.
Support: 0.9155, followed by 0.9100 and...
Trend Overview:
EUR/USD continues to exhibit a bullish price structure, supported by a rising trendline and higher lows. Recent intraday action reflects a corrective pullback, suggesting a temporary pause within the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: 1.1300 (primary), followed by 1.1235 and 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1430 (initial), then 1.1470 and...
Trend Overview:
The DAX Index remains in a bullish trend, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The broader structure continues to favor the upside, although recent intraday price action suggests a sideways consolidation, signaling a potential pause within the prevailing uptrend.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: 23680 (key pivot),...
Key Economic Data
United States
April Factory Orders: A modest increase would indicate steady demand in manufacturing, supporting a soft-landing narrative.
JOLTS Report: Elevated job openings may point to a tight labor market, reinforcing wage and inflation pressures, potentially influencing the Fed’s rate path.
May Total Vehicle Sales: A rebound would suggest...
Macro & FX Outlook
Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% decline in the US dollar by mid-2026, driven by a slowing US economy and expected Fed rate cuts.
Trading implication: Long positions in EUR, GBP, and other G10 currencies may benefit as USD weakens. Watch for renewed momentum in carry trades and emerging market FX.
Geopolitics
Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates...
