🍎📉 Why Apple Could Be Entering a Structural Correction ⚠️🔍
After scanning major tech names today, one stock stood out—for all the wrong reasons:
AAPL.
Technically, Apple has broken below long-standing trendline support, and my chart now assigns a 70% probability(roughly guys...roughly and rounded) of further downside vs only 30% upside. But it's not just about the chart...
Here’s the macro storm Apple is walking into:
🧭 1. Trade War Revival
New tariffs on Chinese electronics could cost Apple up to $1.1B/quarter, even as it tries to diversify production. India and Vietnam are promising, but not mature enough to offset risk.
🤖 2. Lagging in the AI Arms Race
While Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft pour $30B+ into AI, Apple is spending less than half that. Analysts weren’t impressed with “Apple Intelligence.” Siri still isn’t leading.
🇨🇳 3. China: Flatlining Growth, Rising Risk
~18% of Apple’s revenue still comes from China. With Huawei resurging and tightening regulations, Apple’s dominance is being chipped away.
🛑 4. Innovation Pipeline: Empty?
There’s no iPhone super-cycle ahead. Vision Pro remains niche. Apple now looks like a mature tech stock without a breakout catalyst—risky when valuation is still premium.
⚖️ 5. Legal Pressure on Both Sides of the Atlantic
The DOJ and EU are targeting Apple’s App Store dominance. If changes are enforced, the service revenue moat weakens.
🔽 Summary: This Isn’t Panic. It’s Repricing.
The market is re-rating Apple based on real structural risks.
Downside levels I’m watching:
Chart = structure. Narrative = pressure. Both are aligned.
Let me know your thoughts—still longAAPL, or hedging this weakness?
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
After scanning major tech names today, one stock stood out—for all the wrong reasons:
AAPL.Technically, Apple has broken below long-standing trendline support, and my chart now assigns a 70% probability(roughly guys...roughly and rounded) of further downside vs only 30% upside. But it's not just about the chart...
Here’s the macro storm Apple is walking into:
🧭 1. Trade War Revival
New tariffs on Chinese electronics could cost Apple up to $1.1B/quarter, even as it tries to diversify production. India and Vietnam are promising, but not mature enough to offset risk.
🤖 2. Lagging in the AI Arms Race
While Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft pour $30B+ into AI, Apple is spending less than half that. Analysts weren’t impressed with “Apple Intelligence.” Siri still isn’t leading.
🇨🇳 3. China: Flatlining Growth, Rising Risk
~18% of Apple’s revenue still comes from China. With Huawei resurging and tightening regulations, Apple’s dominance is being chipped away.
🛑 4. Innovation Pipeline: Empty?
There’s no iPhone super-cycle ahead. Vision Pro remains niche. Apple now looks like a mature tech stock without a breakout catalyst—risky when valuation is still premium.
⚖️ 5. Legal Pressure on Both Sides of the Atlantic
The DOJ and EU are targeting Apple’s App Store dominance. If changes are enforced, the service revenue moat weakens.
🔽 Summary: This Isn’t Panic. It’s Repricing.
The market is re-rating Apple based on real structural risks.
Downside levels I’m watching:
- []📉 177.65 (first support)
[]📉 154.53 (next key level) - ❗️134–113 zone if macro pressure escalates
Chart = structure. Narrative = pressure. Both are aligned.
Let me know your thoughts—still long
AAPL, or hedging this weakness?One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
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🐾 TOP DOGS TEAM is LIVE! 🚀 Join the $6M KCGI 2025 battle — Signals, Charts & Coaching included.
💰 Min: $100 | 🎯 Register by July 23
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📣 Telegram: t.me/fxprofessor88
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💰 Min: $100 | 🎯 Register by July 23
🔗 fxprofessor.com/top-dogs-team
📣 Telegram: t.me/fxprofessor88
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.