▍Observation & Context
▪ AAPL has been moving sideways within a clearly defined range for the past three months.
▪ On July 07, price tested the range resistance decisively, showing some interest in the upside.
→ Let's first explore the bullish breakout scenario.
▍What Makes a Good Breakout?
Before we talk about targets, let’s define what a good breakout looks like:
▪ A strong bullish candle breaking through the resistance in one clean move.
▪ Followed by a retest of the broken resistance (now acting as support).
▪ After that, price should ideally:
1. Form a higher low, and
2. Reach the next resistance or target zone before pulling back.
▍Target Price – Method 1: Extension of the Range
🔹 Near-Term Target: 1.5–1.618x Fibonacci Extension
- A common zone where momentum often pauses.
- Aligns with the previous high from the last downtrend.
- Technically, to reverse a trend, price needs to take out the previous high. Even though the range has “cooled off” the pressure, we still respect that level.
🔹 Ultimate Target: 2x Range Extension
- Represents a 100% projection of the previous range.
- Commonly used in range breakout targets.
🔹 Dream Target: 2.618x Fibonacci Extension
- Aligns with the start of the last downtrend, adding significance to the level.
- Often marks the exhaustion point of strong trends.
▍Target Price – Method 2: Projection from Higher Low
Note: The new higher low is not yet confirmed at the time of writing. The levels below assume an upward breakout without dropping below 207.22. However, the same logic can be applied once the higher low forms.
🔹 Near-Term Target: Same as Method 1
🔹 Ultimate Target: 100% Projection of Prior Swing
- Projecting the prior swing (from previous low to recent high) from the new higher low.
- This level also aligns with the 1.5–1.618x Fibonacci extension of that swing, increasing its significance.
🔹 Dream Target: Another 100% projection
- Rare, but happens when momentum is very strong.
- In such cases, price might skip any retracement and launch directly into a second leg, equal to the previous swing.
- Here, the level aligns perfectly with the start of the last downtrend, just like the 2.618x extension in Method 1.
▋Mental Notes
▪ No one knows for sure if the breakout will be real or fake. But when it happens, knowing what to look for and where price might go next gives us a clear plan of action.
▪ The market will always find ways to surprise. Stay open and follow the flow.
▋Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.