Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has maintained a well-defined long-term ascending channel since 2019, marked by cyclical touches at both the upper and lower bounds. The current setup signals a bullish reversal following a successful retest of the channel’s lower boundary
AMD now shows a strong bullish reversal:
✅ Broke above a multi-year downtrend line with volume support
📈 Currently retesting resistance $128, a breakout zone historically met with selling
🎯 Channel target projection: $300, offering 140% upside from current price
🔄 Price action consistently respects this trend structure with rhythmically timed expansions every 18–24 months
🧾 Fundamental Tailwinds (2024–2025 Context)
🔥 1. AI Infrastructure & Data Center Dominance
AMD’s MI300X AI GPU series has gained significant traction against Nvidia, with major cloud customers like Microsoft Azure and Meta adopting it for inference workloads.
Revenue from AMD’s Data Center segment surged >80% YoY in Q1 2025, driven by hyperscaler demand and Genoa EPYC chips.
Guidance for 2025–2026 includes double-digit YoY growth across AI and cloud sectors.
🧠 2. Product Roadmap Strength
AMD maintains competitive momentum with Zen 5 CPU launches and RDNA 4 GPU architecture set to arrive late 2025.
Management reaffirmed commitment to high-margin enterprise products and scalable AI inference.
📉 3. Valuation Reset + Earnings Reacceleration
After correcting from $164 to under $100, AMD entered a consolidation phase, allowing for multiple compression reset.
Now trading at ~35x forward P/E (down from 60x peak), with EPS expected to grow >25% YoY into FY2026.
💵 4. Balance Sheet & Buyback Support
Over $5.7B in cash, near-zero debt, and an active $8B share buyback program reinforce shareholder value.
Gross margin in Q1 2025 stood at ~51%, with continued improvements expected from data center mix shift.
AMD now shows a strong bullish reversal:
✅ Broke above a multi-year downtrend line with volume support
📈 Currently retesting resistance $128, a breakout zone historically met with selling
🎯 Channel target projection: $300, offering 140% upside from current price
🔄 Price action consistently respects this trend structure with rhythmically timed expansions every 18–24 months
🧾 Fundamental Tailwinds (2024–2025 Context)
🔥 1. AI Infrastructure & Data Center Dominance
AMD’s MI300X AI GPU series has gained significant traction against Nvidia, with major cloud customers like Microsoft Azure and Meta adopting it for inference workloads.
Revenue from AMD’s Data Center segment surged >80% YoY in Q1 2025, driven by hyperscaler demand and Genoa EPYC chips.
Guidance for 2025–2026 includes double-digit YoY growth across AI and cloud sectors.
🧠 2. Product Roadmap Strength
AMD maintains competitive momentum with Zen 5 CPU launches and RDNA 4 GPU architecture set to arrive late 2025.
Management reaffirmed commitment to high-margin enterprise products and scalable AI inference.
📉 3. Valuation Reset + Earnings Reacceleration
After correcting from $164 to under $100, AMD entered a consolidation phase, allowing for multiple compression reset.
Now trading at ~35x forward P/E (down from 60x peak), with EPS expected to grow >25% YoY into FY2026.
💵 4. Balance Sheet & Buyback Support
Over $5.7B in cash, near-zero debt, and an active $8B share buyback program reinforce shareholder value.
Gross margin in Q1 2025 stood at ~51%, with continued improvements expected from data center mix shift.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.