6/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
ARM
ShortARM, long 
NVDA trade
- the trade that keeps on giving
-ARM on it's NVDA pair (ARM/NVDA) has only been down and do the right, the chart is not something you'd want to step in front of unless you knew of "why" it would fundamentally change
-ARM trades at a valuation that's 2x NVDA, but the company grows half as fast, has lower margins and generally is size-constrained in a game of scale (TSM will take NVDA all day every day over anyone, incl. ARM demand)
- so while it's tough to time "short semis" - and generally I think semis remain the best MT/LT beta in the market mainly because the AI-trade IMHO remains (dystopianly - i know not a word) in the earlier innings than converse... we've just retraced the entire march/april move from lows back to highs?
- the market has a super short memory
- people are renting their exposure (0dte's). positioning remains stretched. i still like a lot of cash here and good hedges.
- but i'm happy to play the pair between arm and nvda. i'm using $150 strikes (same expiry) for both, equally OTM for both, arm on the put side, nvda on the long side
- my guess is any sell off in beta pulls arm down 2x the nvda beta and any further move higher could suck oxygen out of a tired arm with worse valuation underpinnings and rotating into nvda (a better "store of value") and leading to nvda dominance on the arm chart (again referencing the ARM/NVDA pair trade... lower... forever)
V
ARMShort
ARM, long NVDA trade- the trade that keeps on giving
-
ARM on it's NVDA pair (ARM/NVDA) has only been down and do the right, the chart is not something you'd want to step in front of unless you knew of "why" it would fundamentally change-
ARM trades at a valuation that's 2x NVDA, but the company grows half as fast, has lower margins and generally is size-constrained in a game of scale (TSM will take NVDA all day every day over anyone, incl. ARM demand)- so while it's tough to time "short semis" - and generally I think semis remain the best MT/LT beta in the market mainly because the AI-trade IMHO remains (dystopianly - i know not a word) in the earlier innings than converse... we've just retraced the entire march/april move from lows back to highs?
- the market has a super short memory
- people are renting their exposure (0dte's). positioning remains stretched. i still like a lot of cash here and good hedges.
- but i'm happy to play the pair between arm and nvda. i'm using $150 strikes (same expiry) for both, equally OTM for both, arm on the put side, nvda on the long side
- my guess is any sell off in beta pulls arm down 2x the nvda beta and any further move higher could suck oxygen out of a tired arm with worse valuation underpinnings and rotating into nvda (a better "store of value") and leading to nvda dominance on the arm chart (again referencing the ARM/NVDA pair trade... lower... forever)
V
Trade active
taking off the NVDA (long) pair.just short, now ;)
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.