AUDCHF at Make-or-Break Zone: Smart Money Reversal or Breakdown?
1. Price Action
Price is currently trading within a descending channel, with 0.5244 hovering near a key demand zone (0.5150–0.5200), where a first bullish reaction has already occurred.
The structure suggests a potential fake breakdown, with room for a rebound toward static resistances at 0.5330, and possibly 0.5450.
RSI is rising from oversold, showing signs of a potential bullish divergence.
📌 Technical bias: Waiting for confirmation of a reversal at key support.
Upside targets: 0.5330 > 0.5450.
Ideal stop-loss below 0.5160.
2. Retail Sentiment
72% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 0.5551, now facing a 300+ pip drawdown.
This increases short-term contrarian bearish pressure, but also signals liquidity above the highs, which could be targeted before a true bullish reversal.
3. Commitment of Traders (as of June 17, 2025)
AUD – Bearish
Massive drop in both commercial longs (-60k) and shorts (-60k) suggests broad disengagement.
Non-commercials remain net short (-69k), with overall open interest declining.
CHF – Neutral to Bullish
CHF also sees declines in positioning, but commercial traders remain firmly net long (+51.7k).
Non-commercials are net short (-25.5k).
📌 COT Conclusion: AUD remains structurally weaker than CHF, but both currencies are showing signs of positioning uncertainty. This compression phase may precede a technical rebound on AUDCHF.
4. Seasonality
AUD
June historically shows modest strength on 10Y and 5Y averages.
However, 2Y data points to weakness → any rally may be short-lived or fragile.
CHF
CHF tends to be strong in June, especially on 20Y and 10Y views.
Yet, short-term (2Y) data shows end-of-month weakness, suggesting possible profit-taking ahead.
✅ Operational Outlook
Short-term bias: Long AUDCHF (corrective rebound)
Medium/long-term bias: Bearish (still in a downtrend)
Price is currently trading within a descending channel, with 0.5244 hovering near a key demand zone (0.5150–0.5200), where a first bullish reaction has already occurred.
The structure suggests a potential fake breakdown, with room for a rebound toward static resistances at 0.5330, and possibly 0.5450.
RSI is rising from oversold, showing signs of a potential bullish divergence.
📌 Technical bias: Waiting for confirmation of a reversal at key support.
Upside targets: 0.5330 > 0.5450.
Ideal stop-loss below 0.5160.
2. Retail Sentiment
72% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 0.5551, now facing a 300+ pip drawdown.
This increases short-term contrarian bearish pressure, but also signals liquidity above the highs, which could be targeted before a true bullish reversal.
3. Commitment of Traders (as of June 17, 2025)
AUD – Bearish
Massive drop in both commercial longs (-60k) and shorts (-60k) suggests broad disengagement.
Non-commercials remain net short (-69k), with overall open interest declining.
CHF – Neutral to Bullish
CHF also sees declines in positioning, but commercial traders remain firmly net long (+51.7k).
Non-commercials are net short (-25.5k).
📌 COT Conclusion: AUD remains structurally weaker than CHF, but both currencies are showing signs of positioning uncertainty. This compression phase may precede a technical rebound on AUDCHF.
4. Seasonality
AUD
June historically shows modest strength on 10Y and 5Y averages.
However, 2Y data points to weakness → any rally may be short-lived or fragile.
CHF
CHF tends to be strong in June, especially on 20Y and 10Y views.
Yet, short-term (2Y) data shows end-of-month weakness, suggesting possible profit-taking ahead.
✅ Operational Outlook
Short-term bias: Long AUDCHF (corrective rebound)
Medium/long-term bias: Bearish (still in a downtrend)
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.