🔄 Update on AUDCHF – Sitting Out the Storm ⏸️
Just a few days ago, I was eyeing a clean short on AUDCHF. The pair was rejecting resistance, macro favored CHF, and the setup was aligning nicely for a downside play.
But markets don’t move in a vacuum — and Trump’s 39% tariff on Swiss imports, set to take effect tomorrow, just shattered the clean setup.
This changes everything.
📉 Original Thesis:
RBA likely to cut ➡️ AUD weakness
CHF supported by safe-haven demand and stable fundamentals
AUDCHF bouncing into resistance within a broader downtrend
⚠️ New Reality:
🇺🇸 A 39% tariff on Swiss goods injects massive political risk into CHF
🇨🇭 This isn’t a typical risk-off environment anymore — it’s risk against the franc
💣 Safe-haven flows into CHF may dry up or reverse as capital reacts to trade friction
📊 The clean technical structure is now compromised by unquantifiable news risk
🚫 Trade Bias: Neutral – No Trade
I’m stepping aside from AUDCHF for now. The macro case for CHF strength has been undermined, but I’m not convinced AUD is strong enough to buy either. This isn’t a setup — it’s noise, volatility, and uncertainty with no edge.
In FX, uncertainty = risk without reward. Discipline is knowing when not to trade.
I’m keeping it on watch, but until this tariff fallout clears or the chart gives something cleaner, I’m on the sidelines.
Would you still touch this pair with that tariff risk looming?
Because for me — the edge is gone.
Just a few days ago, I was eyeing a clean short on AUDCHF. The pair was rejecting resistance, macro favored CHF, and the setup was aligning nicely for a downside play.
But markets don’t move in a vacuum — and Trump’s 39% tariff on Swiss imports, set to take effect tomorrow, just shattered the clean setup.
This changes everything.
📉 Original Thesis:
RBA likely to cut ➡️ AUD weakness
CHF supported by safe-haven demand and stable fundamentals
AUDCHF bouncing into resistance within a broader downtrend
⚠️ New Reality:
🇺🇸 A 39% tariff on Swiss goods injects massive political risk into CHF
🇨🇭 This isn’t a typical risk-off environment anymore — it’s risk against the franc
💣 Safe-haven flows into CHF may dry up or reverse as capital reacts to trade friction
📊 The clean technical structure is now compromised by unquantifiable news risk
🚫 Trade Bias: Neutral – No Trade
I’m stepping aside from AUDCHF for now. The macro case for CHF strength has been undermined, but I’m not convinced AUD is strong enough to buy either. This isn’t a setup — it’s noise, volatility, and uncertainty with no edge.
In FX, uncertainty = risk without reward. Discipline is knowing when not to trade.
I’m keeping it on watch, but until this tariff fallout clears or the chart gives something cleaner, I’m on the sidelines.
Would you still touch this pair with that tariff risk looming?
Because for me — the edge is gone.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.