# AUD/JPY: Two High-Probability Bearish Setups 🎯
## Overview
AUD/JPY continues to respect its macro downtrend structure, offering two compelling bearish opportunities as price approaches critical resistance levels. Currently trading at 94.398, the pair sits at an inflection point between key support and resistance zones.
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## 📊 Setup 1: Resistance Zone Rejection (Primary)
### Key Level: 95.289 (Major Resistance)
This level has proven its significance multiple times:
- ✅ Strong resistance throughout recent months
- ✅ Clear seller dominance at this zone
- ✅ Confluence with descending channel structure
### Entry Strategy:
1. **Wait** for price to approach 95.289
2. **Identify** bearish rejection patterns:
- Pin bars / Shooting stars
- Bearish engulfing candles
- Multiple wick rejections
3. **Enter** short on confirmed rejection
4. **Stop Loss**: 95.50-95.60 (above resistance)
5. **Targets**:
- TP1: 93.240 (1:2 RR)
- TP2: 92.271 (1:3.5 RR)
---
## 📊 Setup 2: Rising Wedge Breakdown (Secondary)
### Pattern Recognition:
A textbook rising wedge has formed since the May lows - a bearish reversal pattern within the larger downtrend context.
### Entry Strategy:
1. **Monitor** the lower wedge trendline
2. **Wait** for decisive breakdown with volume
3. **Enter** short on retest of broken support
4. **Stop Loss**: Above recent swing high
5. **Target**: 93.240 support zone
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## 📈 Market Structure Analysis
### Macro Trend: BEARISH 📉
- Consistent lower highs and lower lows from 102+ levels
- Currently in corrective bounce phase
- Respecting descending channel boundaries
### Current Position:
Price trapped between:
- **Resistance**: 95.289
- **Support**: 93.240
- **Deep Support**: 92.271
---
## ⚠️ Risk Management
**Patience is key!** Current price offers poor risk/reward. Wait for:
1. **Scenario A**: Test of 95.289 resistance → Short opportunity
2. **Scenario B**: Break below wedge support → Short opportunity
3. **Scenario C**: Break above 95.289 → Invalidation, stay flat
### Position Sizing:
- Risk per trade: 1-2% of account
- Adjust position size based on stop distance
---
## 🎯 Trade Summary
**Bias**: BEARISH 🐻
**Preferred Setup**: Resistance rejection at 95.289
**Risk/Reward**: Minimum 1:2
**Timeframe**: Daily
---
*Remember: The best trades come to those who wait. Let price come to your levels, don't chase!*
**What's your view? Drop a comment below! 👇**
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.*
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## Overview
AUD/JPY continues to respect its macro downtrend structure, offering two compelling bearish opportunities as price approaches critical resistance levels. Currently trading at 94.398, the pair sits at an inflection point between key support and resistance zones.
---
## 📊 Setup 1: Resistance Zone Rejection (Primary)
### Key Level: 95.289 (Major Resistance)
This level has proven its significance multiple times:
- ✅ Strong resistance throughout recent months
- ✅ Clear seller dominance at this zone
- ✅ Confluence with descending channel structure
### Entry Strategy:
1. **Wait** for price to approach 95.289
2. **Identify** bearish rejection patterns:
- Pin bars / Shooting stars
- Bearish engulfing candles
- Multiple wick rejections
3. **Enter** short on confirmed rejection
4. **Stop Loss**: 95.50-95.60 (above resistance)
5. **Targets**:
- TP1: 93.240 (1:2 RR)
- TP2: 92.271 (1:3.5 RR)
---
## 📊 Setup 2: Rising Wedge Breakdown (Secondary)
### Pattern Recognition:
A textbook rising wedge has formed since the May lows - a bearish reversal pattern within the larger downtrend context.
### Entry Strategy:
1. **Monitor** the lower wedge trendline
2. **Wait** for decisive breakdown with volume
3. **Enter** short on retest of broken support
4. **Stop Loss**: Above recent swing high
5. **Target**: 93.240 support zone
---
## 📈 Market Structure Analysis
### Macro Trend: BEARISH 📉
- Consistent lower highs and lower lows from 102+ levels
- Currently in corrective bounce phase
- Respecting descending channel boundaries
### Current Position:
Price trapped between:
- **Resistance**: 95.289
- **Support**: 93.240
- **Deep Support**: 92.271
---
## ⚠️ Risk Management
**Patience is key!** Current price offers poor risk/reward. Wait for:
1. **Scenario A**: Test of 95.289 resistance → Short opportunity
2. **Scenario B**: Break below wedge support → Short opportunity
3. **Scenario C**: Break above 95.289 → Invalidation, stay flat
### Position Sizing:
- Risk per trade: 1-2% of account
- Adjust position size based on stop distance
---
## 🎯 Trade Summary
**Bias**: BEARISH 🐻
**Preferred Setup**: Resistance rejection at 95.289
**Risk/Reward**: Minimum 1:2
**Timeframe**: Daily
---
*Remember: The best trades come to those who wait. Let price come to your levels, don't chase!*
**What's your view? Drop a comment below! 👇**
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.*
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.