1. COT Analysis
JPY: Net shorts among Non-Commercials increased (+5.3K shorts, -1.8K longs), indicating growing bearish pressure on the yen. Commercials, however, heavily accumulated longs (+13.5K), suggesting that large players may be hedging or positioning for a potential yen rebound.
AUD: Still heavily net short, with Non-Commercials reducing longs (-2.5K) and slightly increasing shorts (+2.9K). This reflects a continued speculative bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar.
→ COT Implication: The divergence between a heavily shorted JPY and an AUD already under bearish pressure can lead to increased volatility. Without supportive macro drivers for the AUD, the pair may struggle to sustain upward moves.
2. Seasonality
JPY: Historically weak in August (20-year average: -0.61%), with sharper declines in the last 5 and 2 years. This tends to favor AUD/JPY upside in the first part of the month.
AUD: Slightly positive in the past 2 years (+0.01%), but negative over longer periods.
→ Short-term seasonality is moderately supportive of upside, but historical patterns don’t back a strong directional trend.
3. Sentiment
Retail positioning: 63% short vs 37% long. Historically, retail traders often find themselves on the wrong side of major moves, making this setup moderately bullish for AUD/JPY in the short term.
4. Technical Analysis
Weekly Supply Zone: 96.88–98.77. Price is currently below this area after a strong rejection in recent weeks.
Weekly Demand Zone: 94.90–95.00, previously tested with a bullish reaction.
RSI: Neutral zone, no overbought/oversold signals, but slightly tilted downward on the weekly timeframe.
Price Action: Current candle shows a recovery attempt after a bearish rejection, but unless the weekly closes above 96.92, the risk of another drop toward 95 remains high.
5. Trading Bias
Bullish Scenario: Weekly break & close above 96.92 with volume → Target 97.80 / 98.50.
Bearish Scenario: Weekly rejection below 96.90 and daily break of 95.80 → Target 95.00 / 94.50.
Macro Context: In risk-on environments, AUD tends to outperform JPY; in risk-off, the yen rebounds quickly.
📌 Summary:
Short-term neutral-to-bullish bias driven by contrarian retail sentiment and moderately bullish seasonality, but 96.92 remains a critical resistance that must be broken to unlock more upside. Failure here could send the pair back to 95.00, with risk of breakdown if macro sentiment worsens.
JPY: Net shorts among Non-Commercials increased (+5.3K shorts, -1.8K longs), indicating growing bearish pressure on the yen. Commercials, however, heavily accumulated longs (+13.5K), suggesting that large players may be hedging or positioning for a potential yen rebound.
AUD: Still heavily net short, with Non-Commercials reducing longs (-2.5K) and slightly increasing shorts (+2.9K). This reflects a continued speculative bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar.
→ COT Implication: The divergence between a heavily shorted JPY and an AUD already under bearish pressure can lead to increased volatility. Without supportive macro drivers for the AUD, the pair may struggle to sustain upward moves.
2. Seasonality
JPY: Historically weak in August (20-year average: -0.61%), with sharper declines in the last 5 and 2 years. This tends to favor AUD/JPY upside in the first part of the month.
AUD: Slightly positive in the past 2 years (+0.01%), but negative over longer periods.
→ Short-term seasonality is moderately supportive of upside, but historical patterns don’t back a strong directional trend.
3. Sentiment
Retail positioning: 63% short vs 37% long. Historically, retail traders often find themselves on the wrong side of major moves, making this setup moderately bullish for AUD/JPY in the short term.
4. Technical Analysis
Weekly Supply Zone: 96.88–98.77. Price is currently below this area after a strong rejection in recent weeks.
Weekly Demand Zone: 94.90–95.00, previously tested with a bullish reaction.
RSI: Neutral zone, no overbought/oversold signals, but slightly tilted downward on the weekly timeframe.
Price Action: Current candle shows a recovery attempt after a bearish rejection, but unless the weekly closes above 96.92, the risk of another drop toward 95 remains high.
5. Trading Bias
Bullish Scenario: Weekly break & close above 96.92 with volume → Target 97.80 / 98.50.
Bearish Scenario: Weekly rejection below 96.90 and daily break of 95.80 → Target 95.00 / 94.50.
Macro Context: In risk-on environments, AUD tends to outperform JPY; in risk-off, the yen rebounds quickly.
📌 Summary:
Short-term neutral-to-bullish bias driven by contrarian retail sentiment and moderately bullish seasonality, but 96.92 remains a critical resistance that must be broken to unlock more upside. Failure here could send the pair back to 95.00, with risk of breakdown if macro sentiment worsens.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.