| 🔹 Pair / TF | AUD/JPY, 4 h → Lower Timeframes |
| 🔹 Bias | Bearish (selling potential resistance) |
1. 📊 Key Levels
* Level: 93.317
* Role: Recent Swing High / Potential Resistance
* Level: 93.664
* Role: Higher Potential Resistance (aligned with a moving average)
* Level: ~92.317 (red shaded zone)
* Role: Broken Support – now potential resistance
* Level: ~91.109
* Role: Potential Support
* Level: ~90.011
* Role: Lower Potential Support
2. 🚨 Trigger
* Price is currently within the ~92.317 red shaded zone, which acted as minor support previously.
* There's a confluence with what appears to be a moving average (blue line) acting as dynamic resistance above this zone.
* **A rejection from this zone, confirmed by bearish price action on lower timeframes, would be the trigger.**
3. ✅ Confirmation
* Look for **bearish engulfing patterns or pin bars** forming on lower timeframes (e.g., 1h, 15m) within the ~92.317 zone.
* The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the lower timeframe chart (shown at the bottom) is currently trending downwards and has broken a minor upward trendline (red line drawn on the RSI). **A continued downward trajectory below the 50 level would add confirmation.**
* **No significant bullish divergence visible on the RSI** that would suggest a reversal.
4. 🎯 Entry & Stops
| 🔶 Entry Zone | ~92.317 – ~92.200 (within the broken support now resistance zone) |
| 🔴 Stop-Loss | Above the recent swing high at 93.317 (potentially around 93.400 - 93.500 to allow for some wiggle room) |
* Place a **Sell Limit or Sell Stop order** within the entry zone, depending on your preferred entry style and confirmation.
* **Risk:** Determine your position size based on your risk tolerance and the calculated stop-loss in pips.
5. 🎯 Profit Targets
| Target | Level | Pips (approximate) | RRR |
| :----- | :-------- | :----------------- | :--------- |
| T1 | S1 ~91.109 | ~120-130 | 1 : 1 or better |
| T2 | S2 ~90.011 | ~220-230 | 1 : 2 or better |
* **Scale out:**
* Consider taking partial profits at T1.
* Let the remaining position run towards T2, potentially adjusting your stop-loss to breakeven or in profit.
6. ⚙️ Trade Management
* Once the trade is in profit (e.g., reaching a certain pip gain or T1), **consider moving your stop-loss to breakeven** to protect your capital.
* **Monitor price action around S1.** If there are strong signs of buying pressure, consider closing the remaining position.
* Pay attention to any potential reversal patterns or significant volume spikes as price approaches your target levels.
7. 🔑 Rationale
* The **break of the previous minor support around ~92.317 suggests a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.**
* The **confluence of this broken support with a dynamic moving average resistance increases the probability of a rejection.**
* The **bearish momentum indicated by the RSI on the lower timeframe supports the short bias.**
* Aiming for the next support levels (S1 and S2) provides logical profit targets based on potential price action.
⚡ Highlight:
This is a **bank-order-flow style fade**, looking to sell at a level that previously acted as support, now likely to act as resistance after a break, with confluence from a moving average. The lower timeframe RSI breakdown adds to the bearish conviction.
| 🔹 Bias | Bearish (selling potential resistance) |
1. 📊 Key Levels
* Level: 93.317
* Role: Recent Swing High / Potential Resistance
* Level: 93.664
* Role: Higher Potential Resistance (aligned with a moving average)
* Level: ~92.317 (red shaded zone)
* Role: Broken Support – now potential resistance
* Level: ~91.109
* Role: Potential Support
* Level: ~90.011
* Role: Lower Potential Support
2. 🚨 Trigger
* Price is currently within the ~92.317 red shaded zone, which acted as minor support previously.
* There's a confluence with what appears to be a moving average (blue line) acting as dynamic resistance above this zone.
* **A rejection from this zone, confirmed by bearish price action on lower timeframes, would be the trigger.**
3. ✅ Confirmation
* Look for **bearish engulfing patterns or pin bars** forming on lower timeframes (e.g., 1h, 15m) within the ~92.317 zone.
* The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the lower timeframe chart (shown at the bottom) is currently trending downwards and has broken a minor upward trendline (red line drawn on the RSI). **A continued downward trajectory below the 50 level would add confirmation.**
* **No significant bullish divergence visible on the RSI** that would suggest a reversal.
4. 🎯 Entry & Stops
| 🔶 Entry Zone | ~92.317 – ~92.200 (within the broken support now resistance zone) |
| 🔴 Stop-Loss | Above the recent swing high at 93.317 (potentially around 93.400 - 93.500 to allow for some wiggle room) |
* Place a **Sell Limit or Sell Stop order** within the entry zone, depending on your preferred entry style and confirmation.
* **Risk:** Determine your position size based on your risk tolerance and the calculated stop-loss in pips.
5. 🎯 Profit Targets
| Target | Level | Pips (approximate) | RRR |
| :----- | :-------- | :----------------- | :--------- |
| T1 | S1 ~91.109 | ~120-130 | 1 : 1 or better |
| T2 | S2 ~90.011 | ~220-230 | 1 : 2 or better |
* **Scale out:**
* Consider taking partial profits at T1.
* Let the remaining position run towards T2, potentially adjusting your stop-loss to breakeven or in profit.
6. ⚙️ Trade Management
* Once the trade is in profit (e.g., reaching a certain pip gain or T1), **consider moving your stop-loss to breakeven** to protect your capital.
* **Monitor price action around S1.** If there are strong signs of buying pressure, consider closing the remaining position.
* Pay attention to any potential reversal patterns or significant volume spikes as price approaches your target levels.
7. 🔑 Rationale
* The **break of the previous minor support around ~92.317 suggests a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.**
* The **confluence of this broken support with a dynamic moving average resistance increases the probability of a rejection.**
* The **bearish momentum indicated by the RSI on the lower timeframe supports the short bias.**
* Aiming for the next support levels (S1 and S2) provides logical profit targets based on potential price action.
⚡ Highlight:
This is a **bank-order-flow style fade**, looking to sell at a level that previously acted as support, now likely to act as resistance after a break, with confluence from a moving average. The lower timeframe RSI breakdown adds to the bearish conviction.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.