📊 Trade Plan: AUD/JPY – August 2025
🧠 Summary:
AUD/JPY has broken a clear ascending channel and retested the breakdown area, aligning with a marked sell zone. Institutional data supports JPY strength and AUD weakness, while trend projections suggest downside momentum into mid-August.
1. Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Channel Break: Price broke below the rising trendline after a multi-week uptrend.
Sell Zone: 95.98 area, acting as broken structure + pivot resistance.
TP Target: ~92.30 — near key historical support and S2 area.
Bearish Structure: Lower highs forming after failed breakouts above 97.15.
Pivot Resistance & Supply Clusters align with the sell zone.
🔔 Technical Bias: Bearish
2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Sentiment
Currency Long % Short % Δ Weekly
AUD 20.22% 79.78% +1.14% (slightly more bearish)
JPY 68.99% 31.01% -5.01% (stronger bullish sentiment)
Institutions are highly short AUD and long JPY, supporting bearish AUD/JPY.
🔔 COT Bias: Strongly Bearish
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail Traders:
64% long AUD/JPY, 36% short.
This contrarian signal supports a bearish bias, since retail is heavily long while price is breaking down.
🔔 Retail Bias: Bearish
4. Trend Projection
All models (green, black, red) suggest:
Short-term bounce around 96.5–97.2
Medium-term decline into 95.5, 95.0, then 94.5–94.0 by Aug 6–7
Bearish scenario points to 93.5 and lower.
🔔 Projection Bias: Bearish
🧠 Summary:
AUD/JPY has broken a clear ascending channel and retested the breakdown area, aligning with a marked sell zone. Institutional data supports JPY strength and AUD weakness, while trend projections suggest downside momentum into mid-August.
1. Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Channel Break: Price broke below the rising trendline after a multi-week uptrend.
Sell Zone: 95.98 area, acting as broken structure + pivot resistance.
TP Target: ~92.30 — near key historical support and S2 area.
Bearish Structure: Lower highs forming after failed breakouts above 97.15.
Pivot Resistance & Supply Clusters align with the sell zone.
🔔 Technical Bias: Bearish
2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Sentiment
Currency Long % Short % Δ Weekly
AUD 20.22% 79.78% +1.14% (slightly more bearish)
JPY 68.99% 31.01% -5.01% (stronger bullish sentiment)
Institutions are highly short AUD and long JPY, supporting bearish AUD/JPY.
🔔 COT Bias: Strongly Bearish
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail Traders:
64% long AUD/JPY, 36% short.
This contrarian signal supports a bearish bias, since retail is heavily long while price is breaking down.
🔔 Retail Bias: Bearish
4. Trend Projection
All models (green, black, red) suggest:
Short-term bounce around 96.5–97.2
Medium-term decline into 95.5, 95.0, then 94.5–94.0 by Aug 6–7
Bearish scenario points to 93.5 and lower.
🔔 Projection Bias: Bearish
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.