## 🔥 AUD/USD TRADE PLAN 🔥
📅 **Date**: April 22, 2025
🆔 **PLAN ID**: AU22APR25-ID
🔒 **Format**: Institutional 0.001% Precision
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### **Trade Plan Overview**
| Plan ID | Type | Direction | Confidence | R:R | Status |
|---------------|-----------|-----------|------------|------|------------------|
| AU22APR25-ID | Intra-Day | Sell | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 85% | 2.5:1| Awaiting Conf. |
**Guidance**: Tactical bearish Intra-Day continuation within H4 exhaustion and D1 rejection zone. Strong short-term downside interest. Monitor London/NY session for entry.
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### 🔻 Primary Trade Plan: Intra-Day – Continuation (Sell)
📈 **Market Bias & Trade Type**
- **Bias**: Bearish 📉
- **Trade Type**: Continuation (Intra-Day)
🔰 **Confidence Level**
⭐⭐⭐⭐ (85%)
**Reason**:
- H1 BOS + OB rejection near 0.6435
- 50%–61.8% Fib pullback into OB
- Volume spike at lower high
- Sentiment Score: +7/10 (Retail 72% long AUD/USD, USD strength from DXY)
- D1 rejection from previous structural highs
- H4 signs of exhaustion after impulse
**Breakdown**: OB 30%, Fib 20%, Sentiment 17%, Volume 13%, USD strength 5%
📌 **Status**:
Price approaching zone (~0.6395); waiting for rejection pattern.
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📍 **Entry Zones**
🟥 **Primary Sell Zone**:
**0.6415 – 0.6435** (H1 OB + Fib zone)
🟧 **Secondary Sell Zone**:
**0.6440 – 0.6450** (H1 FVG, liquidity grab above highs)
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❗ **Stop Loss**
**0.6460** (Above OB wick + 1x H1 ATR, 65 pips risk)
🎯 **Take Profit Targets**
🥇 **TP1**: 0.6380 (35 pips, 1:0.5 R:R, minor reaction zone)
🥈 **TP2**: 0.6350 (85 pips, 1:1.3 R:R, clean liquidity pool)
🥉 **TP3**: 0.6300 (135 pips, 2.5:1 R:R, prior swing low – optional)
📏 **Risk:Reward**
TP2: 1.3:1
TP3: 2.5:1
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🧠 **Management Strategy**
- **Risk**: 0.5% of $10,000 ($50, ~0.12 lots)
- SL to breakeven +10 pips after TP1
- TP1: 70% partial
- TP2: 30% partial
- TP3: Optional trail if risk-off momentum increases
- **Exit**: Invalidate if H1 bullish BOS or major USD weakness
- **Total Portfolio Risk**: 0.5% of 2% total
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⚠️ **Confirmation Criteria**
- H1 bearish engulfing / pin bar in zone
- Volume spike (M30)
- Optional: RSI divergence (M30)
- **Best Entry**: London or NY open (2–5 AM or 8–11 AM PDT)
- **Avoid**: Risk events (FOMC April 23)
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⏳ **Validity**
H1 plan: Valid for next 12–18 hours (expires April 23, 2025, 1 PM PDT)
❌ **Invalidation**
Close above 0.6460, bullish H1 BOS, or strong risk-on surge
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🌐 **Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot**
- **COT**: USD positioning stable
- **DXY**: Bullish continuation above 106.20
- **Retail Sentiment**: 72% long AUD/USD (contrarian bearish)
- **Cross-Pair**: NZD/USD and GBP/USD showing similar rejection
- **Cross-Market**: S&P 500 stalling, VIX holding above 20 = risk-off
- **Macro**: FOMC risk ahead, USD demand increasing
- **Sentiment Score**: +7/10
- **Historical**: H1 OB continuation setup = 78% win rate
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📋 **Final Trade Summary**
Intra-Day bearish continuation from 0.6415–0.6435 zone, targeting recent reaction lows. Aligned with D1 rejection and H4 slowdown. Enter only with clean H1 rejection, preferably during London/NY session.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.