AUD/USD Trade Directional Bias and Central Bank Impact
Current AUD/USD Overview (April 2025)
AUD/USD is will face 0.65362 a critical resistance zone which is also a break of demand floor ,after the weekly candle breaks 0.63675 that has capped gains throughout 2025. The pair faces mixed signals from central bank policies, technical levels, and geopolitical risks. Below is a breakdown of key drivers:
Central Bank Leaders and Policy Outlook
RBA Michele Bullock Cautiously dovish: Held rates at 4.10% in April but signaled openness to cuts if inflation eases. Prioritizes data dependency amid U.S. tariff uncertainty, RBA next meeting will be 7 May 2025 ) Rate cuts (expected in May/July) could weaken AUD.
Fed Jerome Powell Under political pressure: Trump criticizes Powell for "keeping rates too high." Markets price in 2025 rate cuts if U.S. inflation cool.the next fed meeting will be 14–15 May 2025 (Next FOMC) ,if feds remains Dovish ,Fed shifts would weaken USD, boosting AUD/USD.
Key Economic Calendar Events
RBA Meetings (7 May, 18 June, 6 August)
A 25 bps cut is 80% priced for May and fully priced for July.
Bullock’s cautious tone suggests cuts depend on inflation and tariff impacts.
U.S. Inflation Data (10 May, 12 June)
Softer CPI/PPI could accelerate Fed rate cuts, weakening USD.
U.S.-China Trade Developments
Escalating tariffs (e.g., Trump’s 10% levy on Australian imports) risk AUD downside, but de-escalation could boost risk sentiment.
Conclusion
AUD/USD’s bias leans cautiously bullish if Fed dovishness outweighs RBA easing, but bearish risks persist from tariff tensions and RBA cuts. Key levels to watch:
Monitor speeches by Bullock (RBA) and Powell (Fed), along with U.S. inflation data and RBA meeting outcomes, for directional cues.
Current AUD/USD Overview (April 2025)
AUD/USD is will face 0.65362 a critical resistance zone which is also a break of demand floor ,after the weekly candle breaks 0.63675 that has capped gains throughout 2025. The pair faces mixed signals from central bank policies, technical levels, and geopolitical risks. Below is a breakdown of key drivers:
Central Bank Leaders and Policy Outlook
RBA Michele Bullock Cautiously dovish: Held rates at 4.10% in April but signaled openness to cuts if inflation eases. Prioritizes data dependency amid U.S. tariff uncertainty, RBA next meeting will be 7 May 2025 ) Rate cuts (expected in May/July) could weaken AUD.
Fed Jerome Powell Under political pressure: Trump criticizes Powell for "keeping rates too high." Markets price in 2025 rate cuts if U.S. inflation cool.the next fed meeting will be 14–15 May 2025 (Next FOMC) ,if feds remains Dovish ,Fed shifts would weaken USD, boosting AUD/USD.
Key Economic Calendar Events
RBA Meetings (7 May, 18 June, 6 August)
A 25 bps cut is 80% priced for May and fully priced for July.
Bullock’s cautious tone suggests cuts depend on inflation and tariff impacts.
U.S. Inflation Data (10 May, 12 June)
Softer CPI/PPI could accelerate Fed rate cuts, weakening USD.
U.S.-China Trade Developments
Escalating tariffs (e.g., Trump’s 10% levy on Australian imports) risk AUD downside, but de-escalation could boost risk sentiment.
Conclusion
AUD/USD’s bias leans cautiously bullish if Fed dovishness outweighs RBA easing, but bearish risks persist from tariff tensions and RBA cuts. Key levels to watch:
Monitor speeches by Bullock (RBA) and Powell (Fed), along with U.S. inflation data and RBA meeting outcomes, for directional cues.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.