AUDUSD is developing a clean bearish technical setup just as macro fundamentals increasingly weigh on the Australian dollar. The pair recently completed a rising wedge breakout and is now retesting broken structure within a larger downtrend. With risk sentiment shaky due to U.S. tariff threats and dovish repricing of the RBA’s outlook, Aussie bulls may struggle to sustain momentum. A confirmed breakdown below 0.6458 could open the door toward June’s swing low near 0.6390.
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
✅ Bearish Flag Structure:
The chart shows a sequence of bearish flags and rising wedges, all of which have historically broken lower. The latest breakout to the downside was sharp, and the current rally appears corrective.
✅ Fib Levels & Confluence:
Price is hovering near the 38.2% retracement (0.6510) from the last leg down. The invalidation zone around 0.6565 aligns with a supply zone, making it an ideal SL area.
✅ Target Zones:
First support: 0.6458
Measured move: 0.6390 - 0.6370
These coincide with Fib 61.8% & 100%, adding technical confluence.
📉 Fundamental Drivers:
Dovish RBA Signals: Labour data missed expectations, and June inflation slowed (4.8% vs. 4.9% expected), softening the RBA’s hawkish stance.
Stronger USD Outlook: Powell’s reappointment risk and rate-cut delay pricing have supported the dollar. U.S. data (Retail Sales, CPI) still signal sticky inflation and strong labor.
Tariff Risk from Trump: With the U.S. floating global 10% tariffs, risk assets like AUD (a high-beta currency) face downside pressure.
⚠️ Risks to Bearish Bias:
Stronger-than-expected China stimulus could support AUD as a proxy.
A dovish Fed pivot or soft U.S. data might undercut USD strength.
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
✅ Bearish Flag Structure:
The chart shows a sequence of bearish flags and rising wedges, all of which have historically broken lower. The latest breakout to the downside was sharp, and the current rally appears corrective.
✅ Fib Levels & Confluence:
Price is hovering near the 38.2% retracement (0.6510) from the last leg down. The invalidation zone around 0.6565 aligns with a supply zone, making it an ideal SL area.
✅ Target Zones:
First support: 0.6458
Measured move: 0.6390 - 0.6370
These coincide with Fib 61.8% & 100%, adding technical confluence.
📉 Fundamental Drivers:
Dovish RBA Signals: Labour data missed expectations, and June inflation slowed (4.8% vs. 4.9% expected), softening the RBA’s hawkish stance.
Stronger USD Outlook: Powell’s reappointment risk and rate-cut delay pricing have supported the dollar. U.S. data (Retail Sales, CPI) still signal sticky inflation and strong labor.
Tariff Risk from Trump: With the U.S. floating global 10% tariffs, risk assets like AUD (a high-beta currency) face downside pressure.
⚠️ Risks to Bearish Bias:
Stronger-than-expected China stimulus could support AUD as a proxy.
A dovish Fed pivot or soft U.S. data might undercut USD strength.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.