AUDUSD – May 13, 2025
📋 Plan Overview Table
Plan Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Main Swing Plan Sell 🔶 84% 3.2R ✅ Active
📈 Market Bias & Type
Bias: Bearish Type: HTF Continuation Sell after failed bullish attempt into resistance (breaker + supply)
🔰 Confidence Level
84% Total Confidence
* HTF Structure Break + Shift: 25%
* Fresh H4 Supply Zone with imbalance: 20%
* D1 Trendline break & retest: 15%
* Confluence with NY Session rejection: 12%
* USD Index correlation supportive: 12%
📍 Entry Zones
* Primary Zone (Optimal): 0.6420 – 0.6430 → H4 fresh supply zone + liquidity sweep
* Secondary Zone (Deeper POI, if spiked): 0.6440 – 0.6455 → Last D1 supply engulf before sell-off
❗ SL with Reasoning
* Stop Loss: 0.6470
* Reasoning: Above final wick and imbalance; invalidation of HTF supply and D1 rejection structure.
🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
* TP1: 0.6365 → H1 mid-range structure
* TP2: 0.6320 → D1 equal lows + liquidity pool
* TP3 (Extended): 0.6285 → Full H4 liquidity run below multi-week range
🧠 Management Strategy
* Risk: 0.5% per entry zone
* Scale: Add 0.25% on secondary zone if triggered
* Breakeven: On clear break of 0.6365 with momentum
* Trail: Trail manually after 0.6320 touch with volatility logic
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
* ✅ H1 Bearish Engulfing at entry
* ✅ Volume spike or wick rejection (preferably NY session)
* Optional: Internal BOS on M15 near entry adds further weight
⏳ Validity
* Swing Trade: Valid for 48–72 hours
* Review zone daily for continuation or rejection invalidation
❌ Invalidation Conditions
* Clean close above 0.6468 on H4 or Daily
* Break in bearish HTF structure
* DXY sharp reversal invalidating USD strength
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* AUD: Bearish due to weaker CPI outlook, RBA dovish tones
* USD: Bullish momentum from sticky CPI + Fed hawkish repricing
* Sentiment: Risk-off continues favoring USD gains against risk currencies like AUD
📋 Final Trade Summary
AUDUSD presents a textbook swing continuation short from a premium supply area backed by macro USD strength, technical structure break, and session rejection. Favoring strong reward with tight invalidation, it's positioned for a 2–3 day hold targeting March–April liquidity pockets.
📋 Plan Overview Table
Plan Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Main Swing Plan Sell 🔶 84% 3.2R ✅ Active
📈 Market Bias & Type
Bias: Bearish Type: HTF Continuation Sell after failed bullish attempt into resistance (breaker + supply)
🔰 Confidence Level
84% Total Confidence
* HTF Structure Break + Shift: 25%
* Fresh H4 Supply Zone with imbalance: 20%
* D1 Trendline break & retest: 15%
* Confluence with NY Session rejection: 12%
* USD Index correlation supportive: 12%
📍 Entry Zones
* Primary Zone (Optimal): 0.6420 – 0.6430 → H4 fresh supply zone + liquidity sweep
* Secondary Zone (Deeper POI, if spiked): 0.6440 – 0.6455 → Last D1 supply engulf before sell-off
❗ SL with Reasoning
* Stop Loss: 0.6470
* Reasoning: Above final wick and imbalance; invalidation of HTF supply and D1 rejection structure.
🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
* TP1: 0.6365 → H1 mid-range structure
* TP2: 0.6320 → D1 equal lows + liquidity pool
* TP3 (Extended): 0.6285 → Full H4 liquidity run below multi-week range
🧠 Management Strategy
* Risk: 0.5% per entry zone
* Scale: Add 0.25% on secondary zone if triggered
* Breakeven: On clear break of 0.6365 with momentum
* Trail: Trail manually after 0.6320 touch with volatility logic
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
* ✅ H1 Bearish Engulfing at entry
* ✅ Volume spike or wick rejection (preferably NY session)
* Optional: Internal BOS on M15 near entry adds further weight
⏳ Validity
* Swing Trade: Valid for 48–72 hours
* Review zone daily for continuation or rejection invalidation
❌ Invalidation Conditions
* Clean close above 0.6468 on H4 or Daily
* Break in bearish HTF structure
* DXY sharp reversal invalidating USD strength
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* AUD: Bearish due to weaker CPI outlook, RBA dovish tones
* USD: Bullish momentum from sticky CPI + Fed hawkish repricing
* Sentiment: Risk-off continues favoring USD gains against risk currencies like AUD
📋 Final Trade Summary
AUDUSD presents a textbook swing continuation short from a premium supply area backed by macro USD strength, technical structure break, and session rejection. Favoring strong reward with tight invalidation, it's positioned for a 2–3 day hold targeting March–April liquidity pockets.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.