short setup on AUD/USD

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🧠 Overall Context

W (Weekly): Bullish

D (Daily): Bearish

12H, 6H, 4H: Bearish

Bias: Short-term bearish retracement inside higher timeframe bullish structure.

🔍 Technical Breakdown
🔴 1. Market Structure

Price broke below a significant support zone (around 0.65300–0.65400), flipping it into resistance (now labeled Weekly AOI).

A bearish BOS (Break of Structure) has occurred on 4H.

Lower high formation is anticipated at the AOI (area of interest) around 0.65200–0.65400.

🔵 2. EMA Confluence

Price is now below the 50 EMA (blue) and testing the 200 EMA (red) as dynamic resistance/support.

The rejection near the 200 EMA (red) is forming consolidation, suggesting distribution before another leg down.

🟥 3. Supply Zone (Weekly AOI)

Clear supply zone rejection in red box: previous support → resistance flip.

The red rectangle represents a potential entry zone for a short, with SL above 0.65400.

🟩 4. Trade Setup

Entry: Rejection or mitigation at 0.65200–0.65400 zone (Weekly AOI).

SL: Just above the supply zone, around 0.65465.

TP: Near Daily AOI at 0.64500–0.64490, aligning with a strong demand zone from late June.

RR (Risk-Reward): Approximately 1:2 or better, depending on exact entry.

🔻 5. Projection Path

Bearish move expected after potential pullback.

Red arrow shows anticipated path: rally to Weekly AOI → rejection → continuation to Daily AOI → possible reaction at Weekly AOI below 0.6400 if sell pressure continues.

✅ Confluences for Short

HTF (4H, 6H, 12H) bearish structure.

Rejection at flipped Weekly AOI.

Bearish EMA alignment.

Clear BOS and lower-high formation.

Clean TP target at Daily AOI (logical liquidity pool).

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