BABA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10

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🧾 BABA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10
Bias: Moderately Bearish
Timeframe: 5 trading days
Catalysts: Weakening momentum, max pain gravity, fading upside catalysts
Trade Type: Single-leg PUT option

🧠 Model Summary Table
Model Direction Strike Entry Price Target Stop Loss Confidence
Grok Bullish 125.00C $0.77 $1.16 $0.385 65%
Claude Bearish 117.00P $1.75 $2.63 $1.23 65%
Llama Bearish 119.00P $2.85 $3.42 $2.28 65%
Gemini Bullish 125.00C $0.77 $1.35 $0.38 68%
DeepSeek Bearish 114.00P $0.79 $1.19 $0.55 70%

✅ Consensus: Moderately Bearish
📉 Core Setup: Downside pullback toward $115–118 support zone
⚠️ Outlier: Gemini and Grok see potential call upside on sentiment rebound

🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap
Trend: Mixed structure—price stuck between declining intraday EMAs and longer-term resistances

Momentum: Bearish MACD and RSI signals across M5 & daily on 3/5 models

Sentiment: VIX 16.8 (neutral), Max Pain at $118 = gravitational anchor

Options Flow: Heavy call OI near $124–125 (potential cap); Put flows dominate below $118

✅ Final Trade Recommendation
Parameter Value
Instrument BABA
Strategy Single-leg PUT (weekly)
Strike $115.00
Entry Price $1.13 (ask)
Profit Target $1.70 (~50% gain)
Stop-Loss $0.79 (~30% loss)
Size 1 contract
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 65%

🎯 Rationale: Favorable risk-reward in short-dated put to capture downside drift toward $115 zone. Models align around a modest pullback, driven by technical weakness and lack of fresh bullish catalysts.

⚠️ Risk Factors
Sharp bounce from short-term oversold RSI

Sudden news catalyst (AI/cloud deal, macro relief) could fuel call side squeeze

Weekly options decay accelerates sharply by Thursday

Max pain shift or volatility compression could mute movement

📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT
🎯 Instrument: BABA
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: 115.00
💵 Entry Price: 1.13
🎯 Profit Target: 1.70
🛑 Stop Loss: 0.79
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13
📏 Size: 1 contract
📈 Confidence: 65%
⏰ Entry Timing: open
🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-08 23:55:22 EDT

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