Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The oil market is bracing for a new episode of high tension. With Brent stabilizing around $70 per barrel, OPEC+ has made a decisive move: starting in September, it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day—a decision that could significantly alter the global supply-demand balance. The announcement comes at a critical moment, marked by political pressure, conflicting interests, and an increasingly uncertain geoeconomic backdrop. September 7 is shaping up to be the next major turning point for the market.
Fundamental Analysis
OPEC+’s decision to increase output effectively erases its largest remaining production cut, implemented during the height of the pandemic. The group is not only restoring supply but has also granted the United Arab Emirates an additional quota equivalent to 2.4% of global demand—an internal rebalancing that could create tension within the cartel.
Meanwhile, diplomatic pressure continues to mount. The United States, maintaining a firm stance inherited from the Trump era, keeps urging India and other major consumers to reduce their dependence on Russian oil. This dynamic complicates the outlook for countries that have benefited from discounted Russian crude in recent years and reopens the debate over strategic energy alliances.
The current environment is defined by increasing supply, sustained demand, and growing political pressure on certain trade flows. All these factors suggest a more volatile market, highly sensitive to any disruption in the balance.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Brent remains stuck in a downward-sloping sideways structure. Prices are fluctuating between key support at $67.50 and strong resistance at $79. Volume has declined in recent sessions, indicating trader caution ahead of upcoming OPEC+ decisions.
A clear breakout above the $72.74 resistance could pave the way for a bullish move toward the next target zone at $75–76, while a drop below $67.50 would activate a corrective scenario targeting the $64–65 area. Both RSI and MACD indicators are showing neutral signals with no clear trend, reinforcing the short-term consolidation outlook.
The next move will largely depend on how events unfold around September 7, a date that could redefine the market balance.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
The oil market is bracing for a new episode of high tension. With Brent stabilizing around $70 per barrel, OPEC+ has made a decisive move: starting in September, it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day—a decision that could significantly alter the global supply-demand balance. The announcement comes at a critical moment, marked by political pressure, conflicting interests, and an increasingly uncertain geoeconomic backdrop. September 7 is shaping up to be the next major turning point for the market.
Fundamental Analysis
OPEC+’s decision to increase output effectively erases its largest remaining production cut, implemented during the height of the pandemic. The group is not only restoring supply but has also granted the United Arab Emirates an additional quota equivalent to 2.4% of global demand—an internal rebalancing that could create tension within the cartel.
Meanwhile, diplomatic pressure continues to mount. The United States, maintaining a firm stance inherited from the Trump era, keeps urging India and other major consumers to reduce their dependence on Russian oil. This dynamic complicates the outlook for countries that have benefited from discounted Russian crude in recent years and reopens the debate over strategic energy alliances.
The current environment is defined by increasing supply, sustained demand, and growing political pressure on certain trade flows. All these factors suggest a more volatile market, highly sensitive to any disruption in the balance.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Brent remains stuck in a downward-sloping sideways structure. Prices are fluctuating between key support at $67.50 and strong resistance at $79. Volume has declined in recent sessions, indicating trader caution ahead of upcoming OPEC+ decisions.
A clear breakout above the $72.74 resistance could pave the way for a bullish move toward the next target zone at $75–76, while a drop below $67.50 would activate a corrective scenario targeting the $64–65 area. Both RSI and MACD indicators are showing neutral signals with no clear trend, reinforcing the short-term consolidation outlook.
The next move will largely depend on how events unfold around September 7, a date that could redefine the market balance.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.