Oil prices have climbed around 6% this week, driven by two key developments: a trade deal between the EU and the US, and Donald Trump’s warning that the US may impose sanctions on Russian oil buyers within 10 days unless progress is made toward ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
Russia accounts for about 10.5% of global oil production. Major buyers like China and India, which take 47% and 38% of Russia’s crude exports respectively, are still negotiating their trade deals with the US. That gives Washington leverage to pressure them into cutting back without fully banning imports, which would risk triggering a much sharper price surge.
If China, India, the EU, and Turkey shift away from Russian oil, demand would rise elsewhere, supporting prices. Still, while the short-term technical picture remains bullish above 67.28, prices face resistance between 75.43 and 77.80. This range marks the upper bound of a multi-year downward channel.
OPEC+ also meets this weekend. The group has been increasing production to align with Trump’s promise to lower oil prices, a move that weighs on the long-term outlook. Add to that the impact of new tariffs—15% on EU and Japan exports, 10% on UK goods, and likely more to come for China and India—and global GDP growth could slow, further capping oil’s upside.
Unless prices break convincingly above 77.80, the broader trend remains bearish.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Russia accounts for about 10.5% of global oil production. Major buyers like China and India, which take 47% and 38% of Russia’s crude exports respectively, are still negotiating their trade deals with the US. That gives Washington leverage to pressure them into cutting back without fully banning imports, which would risk triggering a much sharper price surge.
If China, India, the EU, and Turkey shift away from Russian oil, demand would rise elsewhere, supporting prices. Still, while the short-term technical picture remains bullish above 67.28, prices face resistance between 75.43 and 77.80. This range marks the upper bound of a multi-year downward channel.
OPEC+ also meets this weekend. The group has been increasing production to align with Trump’s promise to lower oil prices, a move that weighs on the long-term outlook. Add to that the impact of new tariffs—15% on EU and Japan exports, 10% on UK goods, and likely more to come for China and India—and global GDP growth could slow, further capping oil’s upside.
Unless prices break convincingly above 77.80, the broader trend remains bearish.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.