BTCUSD is not that clear at this moment. There is too much harmonics and find the right one is hard, so I zoom out and back in to figured out what is the strong signals. From my previous idea, where the game will change is a zone between 9.2K and 9.4K and after passing it and going to 11.7K, daily mean, market is back to retest this zone from the upside. So again this is where BTC battlefield is gonna happen, breaking down this zone will lead us to 4K, a second crash in ABC formation while a support will lead us to higher levels like 12.7K and 16K. The following chart is a possible scenario heading to 9.4K for a first hit on the battle zone.
Note
9.4K got hit:Note
Second hit on 9.4K with two possible paths: test the 9.2K for first time, or go bullish for 10.6K:Note
BTC is a bit sideways looks like waiting for the MEAN to come closer, could also consolidate a bit in order to mount another pivot:Note
BTC got a direct hit on partial target 10870 with some minor pullback, I am now expecting it to go extended higher levels without too much bear movements, partial targets marked with green flag:Note
BTC hit our Circle Fib, on a different spot, and got heavy resistence, it is looking a bit weak but still I think it will find it's way to our next target:Note
Here is what is going on: The 1.618 Circle Fib from 6K is pretty much near, this is the point where huge bears will come from nowhere to make the market fall like a dead bird, I have highlight with green dash the surface point where it might got a hit, and choose 11660 as the probable point. So far market is already bear dominated and looking to a second test on 9.2K levels, on that scenario the 1.618 Circle Fib will get hit on it's "right side" and let bulls expecting higher levels like 11.6K just late and lost. So I am expecting some intense fight between the 10.4K and 10.8K to decide the fate of BTC and time is running out:Note
Found one more candidate for hit price on the 1.618 Big Circle Fib, it is sitting on a standard 0.786 Fib. Although the 1.618 Circle Fib usually means the end of the cycle, it can also go to extended levels like the 5th wave. The extension of this pullback could be dramatic or just some minor, in the case it will extend the bull run to the outer red circle. I will try to get some expectation values soon:Note
Bears in control, broken down 10.4K force me to revise the entire analysis, there is too much possible paths now both bearish and bullish, everything still possible for both sides and we are still above 9.4K. But this new analysis have a focus on the bear side:Note
BTC is heading to hit my "old" Circle Fib on green dash line with a green flag where I believe will happen the impact. Something to note here is that BTC is fighting also with the daily mean and a break out at this very moment would lead to the 16.9K path. If thinks go the "conservative" route we are going back to 9.8K and maybe a second test on the 9.4K/9.2K zone:Note
Our target on 11.1k got hit ahead of time:Note
From the daily chart the 1.618 Circle Fib has finished now we need to find if a break out will come or bears will take over:Note
BTC got a second hit on our target now with a perfect timing. Will this breakout stand, just when month is changing... let's wait and see, or pay and see !Note
Market is very slowly going down following the expected path. I think bulls will try harder when BTC get the 10.4K support where we can continue down or not:Note
Market got a third hit on 11.1K and things are looking for a breakout so a revised charting to account for this event if it happens just now:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.