Updated

Has BTC hit bottom?

CPI numbers come out tomorrow morning. Will they be worse than expected? Probably not but also not good enough. I think there will be a selloff as a result until the Fed meeting Sept. 20-21. I think BTC will hit bottom again and stay there for a month or so before resuming up (unless some world event causes a crash). I think BTC will climb until the beginning of December. Where will it go after that I cannot presume to know. Let's see if this idea can play out. No one can predict or know. This is simply an idea. Food for thought to pair with your own analysis. Good luck!

Note

Well, CPI numbers were worse than expected which went against a lot of estimates. This should push BTC down to the target IMO or maybe even lower. Fear is in the air now and will the fed raise rates higher than expected come the Sept meeting will be question. Let's see how the markets react on open to get a better idea

Note

Given the negative CPI report I wonder if instead of BTC hanging out for a month near current lows as I was predicting above, if we will see a crash down to 15k now and then a V recovery. It's just a thought. Let's see

Note

By the way the dates for the targets are just estimates. It may turn out that the Fed raises rates higher than expected (Powell did say they will act with resolve now...and learn from the past) and that's what triggers a drop to 15k so after the 21st. We shall see but once that is baked in I think the market can go back up. Good luck

Note

BTC seems hellbent on getting to sub 19k...will this support hold? Does BTC want to dive down to 15k? Will it happen before the 20th? A lot of movement before the big even next week with the Fed meeting. Will the Fed raise it a full point? Is this being baked in now? Yeah... A lot of fear but also a good bit of manipulation so be mindful of this. No need to get caught up in the games the bulls and bears are playing with each other at the moment IMO. Take care

Note

Not ready yet to dive down...here is my thought

Note

I settled on this for now...

Note

This weekend could be bloody...stay safe

Note

It will likely test 18.5k ...

Note

My current thoughts...a little rise before the fall IMO. Let's see

Note

The more I contemplate the original idea, the more I think we have hit bottom and its up from here. It will all depend on the FOMC report Sept. 21 at 2pm EST. I have a suspicion Powell will raise it .75 instead of the 100 points I had originally thought. I think he knows he will tip the markets over and cause more pain than good but we shall see. Good luck

Note

smaller timeframe idea...

Note

Here is a couple of different paths I'm watching...just my opinion. We shall see

Note

It will take time for BTC to show its cards...better to wait and see IMO

Note

Here is my outlook through the weekend ..let's see

Note

Bigger picture...
I've heard some say there is no support near 15k or in this case 14.8k..yeah that's what happens when stop losses get hit and BTC free falls. It gets caught and bought up...just a prediction. Pair with your own analysis

Note

Sell the news ...buy low ..good luck!

Note

Let's see how BTC does over the weekend ...should tell us what we need to know in regards to how to invest in the future IMO. Let's see and take it from there. The idea stands though

Note

It may be a slow churn down or finally a sharp drop by Wed I am estimating...something like this. Let's see

Note

A slow churn down it would seem...

Note

My trading plan...I don't see this level holding but ...it may..unlikely though IMO...good luck

Note

For now it appears this level will hold...DJI is bouncing..for how long? Not sure ...but BTC can go up now IMO..so far my original idea is doing pretty well it would seem

Note

This idea may break down mid November where we ma have capitulation...let's see

Note

moment of truth for BTC ...got my popcorn out. Will it drop like a rock or stay sideways? Doesn't look good at the moment TBH. Slingshot? Take care

Note

Well this idea is doing well but it will likely end soon IMO. It seems we are in a right-angled broadening wedge pattern. We will likely spike up out of the falling wedge about 11-12% up and then starts the real bear market. This is what it looks like to me so last chance to make some gains IMO. Lastly this idea is about to become invalid as a result. I'm learning and the chart already was there, I just didn't see it. I more than welcome being wrong and for BTC to continue its climb but there isn't the evidence for it at the moment. Good luck!

Note

I'm leaning towards this path...nothing special here. Right-angled broadening wedge pattern as mentioned a few posts back. Idea is that the Fed will keep raising interest rates and it will keep pushing the market down. I think this may be the last leg up until the time gets closer to the next interest rate hike. Just an opinion. Let's see

Note

Here are a few ideas to pair with your own analysis.

Note

IMO if DJI can't close above 31k by tomorrow (50 day EMA on the daily), then BTC is primed for a big fall over the weekend. On the flip side if it does clear 31k watch out BTC shorts

Note

I should explain my reasoning above a bit. DJI is in a double bottom pattern and its messing around at the neckline. Once it decides which direction to go BTC will follow IMO

Note

DJI making moves between 10-11AM EST...lol. Let's see what happens after lunch

Note

Here is my DJI analysis...if I were betting, I would guess that DJI heads back down today and at end of day tomorrow its a bit below 30,230 by close to paint a grim picture of it loosing the neckline. BTC drops a little over the weekend. DJI heads down on Monday pretty hard and so does BTC but it finds support and then heads up. Just some thoughts. The market knows. I write my ideas so you can always pair with your own analysis. By no means am I suggesting that I can tell the future or I am right. On the contrary as you can clear see, I am wrong quite often but its my profession to study data so that's what I've been doing with the markets for a few years now and I'm learning a lot. We never stop learning right?

Note

DJI instant replay or is it taking off? If it's an instant replay, time wise this means next week is going to be bloody all around and IF timing is the same as the last drop like this, next weekend may be the big drop before what could be a substantial bounce. Markets can't be timed of course. This is just an idea. Good luck

Note

BTC chart idea as it stands currently IMO. Forget a BTC rise if DJI can't get above resistance. Lastly can 18k hold? I am very curious about this

Note

Well I'm going to have to eat my words on a DJI 31k closing on Friday and a BTC squeeze ...I still see a fall this week. I just can't have a bullish outlook yet when overall the market is very bearish. DJI will have to move above the 50 day EMA on the daily and stay there for me to be convinced. It will be very interesting to see what DJI does on Monday. I think BTC will be very sensitive to any move DJI makes because it's time to move it down aggressively it would seem. I re-drew my lines and gave a possible path. Let's see what happens. Good luck

Note

I think DJI is going back to the 30k area in a few days and BTC will move down hard during this time ...just an opinion. If everything lines up it may be time for a run up. Let's see

Note

I think DJI is headed to 30.2k and then up. How far will BTC head down during this time? I'm not sure its going to make it down to 17.5k anymore...I've revised my estimate as shown on the chart. Coincidentally this still aligns with my original idea. Good luck

Note

BTC finally responded to the US index rise (I look at DJI as you know). I think up to the target though its at resistance now. Let's see. One day at a time. Good luck!

Note

long term...maybe something like this. Good luck

Trade closed manually

elliott77

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

elliott77