On the 4H timeframe, Bitcoin is showing a potential reversal structure that deserves close attention. The main idea here: if we see a bounce back toward the 120k/ATH area, I’ll be looking for a short setup.
Here’s why: while price is printing higher highs, the RSI is forming lower highs, signaling a bearish divergence. At the same time, trading volume has been decreasing with each leg up, which reduces the credibility of these new highs. If price does push into the 120k zone on lighter volume, the move would be suspect, and a rejection from there could set up a stronger downside leg.
Should selling pressure return with rising volume, I’d be watching the following levels: 110k zone as the first test of support.
If that fails, the orange box around 100k becomes a realistic target. This would not only mark a clean technical retest, but also align with the prior all-time highs after the Trump election and the renewed “US as a crypto nation” theme that has dominated headlines.
The broader context adds fuel to the scenario: ETF inflows have recently slowed, with some days even posting outflows. Miners, post-halving, are under pressure and de-risking by selling more BTC into strength. Profit-taking and revaluing portfolios for some retailers might be a position as of right now, as well as panic-selling. Meanwhile, sentiment remains split – with bulls calling for 200k+ and skeptics pointing to distribution signs at these levels, also watching possible FED put and a potential recession. And importantly, a true breakout to fresh all-time highs looks less convincing here because nearly every bullish driver is already priced in: the U.S. positioning as the global crypto hub, institutional adoption, ETF approvals, the halving, and the political narrative around Trump and pro-crypto regulation.
Technically, this could be shaping into a dead cat bounce – a rally that lures in late buyers before sellers take back control. For now, the rebound structure into 120k remains the key pivot: weak volume + divergence = short setup.
Thanks for reading,
gqt
Here’s why: while price is printing higher highs, the RSI is forming lower highs, signaling a bearish divergence. At the same time, trading volume has been decreasing with each leg up, which reduces the credibility of these new highs. If price does push into the 120k zone on lighter volume, the move would be suspect, and a rejection from there could set up a stronger downside leg.
Should selling pressure return with rising volume, I’d be watching the following levels: 110k zone as the first test of support.
If that fails, the orange box around 100k becomes a realistic target. This would not only mark a clean technical retest, but also align with the prior all-time highs after the Trump election and the renewed “US as a crypto nation” theme that has dominated headlines.
The broader context adds fuel to the scenario: ETF inflows have recently slowed, with some days even posting outflows. Miners, post-halving, are under pressure and de-risking by selling more BTC into strength. Profit-taking and revaluing portfolios for some retailers might be a position as of right now, as well as panic-selling. Meanwhile, sentiment remains split – with bulls calling for 200k+ and skeptics pointing to distribution signs at these levels, also watching possible FED put and a potential recession. And importantly, a true breakout to fresh all-time highs looks less convincing here because nearly every bullish driver is already priced in: the U.S. positioning as the global crypto hub, institutional adoption, ETF approvals, the halving, and the political narrative around Trump and pro-crypto regulation.
Technically, this could be shaping into a dead cat bounce – a rally that lures in late buyers before sellers take back control. For now, the rebound structure into 120k remains the key pivot: weak volume + divergence = short setup.
Thanks for reading,
gqt
Trade closed: target reached
Well, it worked out pretty well. We did not bounce back to 120K levels, but to 117.500USD, and afterwards returned to downward pressure and hit 108K-levels, which makes the trade a darn good success between 5-10%, depending on what point you entered. I see BTC ranging between 100 and 110K in the coming weeks ahead.
Sic Parvis Magna - Greatness From Small Beginnings
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Sic Parvis Magna - Greatness From Small Beginnings
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.