Updated

Can BTC cross the trend line?

BTC can't seem to rise above the 200 EMA on the 4hr. Will it be any different this time? We shall see

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I should have titled this "Can BTC stay above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and for how long?". Also on the 1 day can BTC rise above the 50 day EMA? This is what I am watching now. I'll give BTC less than 5 days to make it up, otherwise this is still down to me. The volume on the daily has fallen steadily since this run began and volume is king. If volume starts to pick back up tomorrow and the next day then it will get my attention, otherwise this is just another ploy for the rich to keep the price above 27-30k so they don't loose a lot of money IMO. Good luck

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Let me expound on why I think BTC rose up only to fall again. I think DJI is going to have a steep fall this week and lately BTC and US markets have been moving in step with each other. Many have thought that the Dow will topple over ...many times including myself but I think its time. If not BTC goes up IMO and I was fooled. It wouldn't be the first time but I don't want to loose a lot of money while I sleep. I'll invest when DJI starts a new trend up.

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Well BTC passed the 50 EMA on the 1 day and volume picked up. Two things I was looking for. I'm starting to be convinced this isn't just a quick ride up before a drop down but a long opportunity. Still giving it a few more days. Good luck

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Here is an idea if BTC (2 day) keeps going up. I need to be open to both sides even when I don't understand

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Here is a super bullish idea for fun ...

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My current view but BTC could fall down as I initially predicted ...we shall see

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Here is another idea. BTC can't quite seem to lift off. Perhaps it will though?

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Another idea like the one above only a smaller drop for BTC on the right shoulder. Question may be -> will it fail at the bottom of the right shoulder and go south quickly?

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I do believe UP now...let's see. My goodness

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Target is 52k IMO. It looks like the inverse head and shoulders idea I posted the other day which is super bullish. Are we going on a ride up?

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My current thought ...

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Its going up folks whether you like it or not...careful shorts

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There will be lots of volatility IMO. It will be a bumpy ride

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BTC going down just south of the 42k area before moving back up?

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High level prediction... a lot can change this of course such as Russia invading Ukraine which would drop an already weak world market including BTC IMO. These situations are always taken advantage of by smart money

Trade closed manually

I may be closing this too soon as BTC could drop hard down to the 30k area or south of there but only time will tell. Good luck to you all!

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I'm going to stick a fork in it for now unless it shows me otherwise...

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For those of you that may wonder why I switched from an inverse head and shoulders to a head and shoulders, the reason is simply that the inverse head and shoulders failed to break out. Finally it all makes sense. I was beginning to wonder what BTC was up to but more down seems to be in the cards. If your shorting it kept you honest :)

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Keep in mind BTC will revisit the blue line again so it will go up in the short term IMO but ultimately down

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or not ... lol. I'm watching folks so I don't care what happens right now.

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Just a prediction...

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Will we have a bounce here on support or will it continue down to the target?
Let's see what DJI does as its in the same boat sitting on support until it could plummet down further.

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I'm not really convinced of BTC going to 11k...maybe it will do the typical 84% retrace as many say but the market hasn't behaved the same since 2019 IMO. I still think this is a consolidation pattern and we are about to hit the final down (third touch) before a new up trend begins and continues for months to come. We shall see. We certainly are in some unchartered waters with many variables in the world factoring in. Good Luck!

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Maybe a very long wick down and back up into the consolidation area? I'm open to that but I think it may be brief? I think a huge drop is in the cards within the next couple of weeks. If not, then I'm glad to be wrong. I'm analyzing some altcoins that could drop anywhere from 30-50%. Crazy if that happens but will it? We will find out.

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fascinating...another thought could be that alts rebound by 30-50% and then drop again another 30-50% for a double bottom...time will tell but I'm open to either

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A thought ..up and sideways for almost 2 weeks and then down more? Let's see.

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fake rally IMO...I'll give it a couple of weeks for the dust to settle. It is quite interesting though

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What happens when "whoever" is buying, already in a panicked state sees it crashing? It will crash very very hard IMO and smart money will scoop it up. I still don't see it going down to 11k as many famous traders say but maybe I'm wrong. If BTC does keep going up I will be scratching my head for sure. Good luck to you all in this very interesting time in history from a market perspective

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more thoughts...

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My prediction is that BTC is headed for 38k (IHS) and that this support won't hold and down we go. It's following DJI pattern in its HS pattern. BTC parted ways for a few days due to folks buying BTC. I'm guessing by March 14,15th timeframe DJI and BTC will once again be synced up. Just an opinion. Maybe things will be more clear in a couple of weeks. Good luck

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Just in time for the Fed interest rate hikes on March 15th and 16th ...you get the picture

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inverse cup and handle my guess ...back up to 44k and then down to 38k IMO

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Had to wait for the bottom to get the retrace top ...here is my estimate
Will BTC keep going down?

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moved the line again ...

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IHS! nice ... I have quite the bullish outlook at the moment. Too much confirmation IMO

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What we've got here is failure to communicate :) I got out needless to say. Let's see how this plays out.

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A few thoughts...I'm sure you all have yours as well so just thought to share mine

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I'm abandoning the smaller timeframe analysis and stepping back to the 1 day. This needs time to develop and it seems the geopolitical stuff is on the side now IMO. I keep coming back to the consolidation idea. March historically hasn't been fruitful for BTC. Good luck

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Here is a 4hr view...

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Bull trap? That's what I think but let's see...

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More time needed. I will be surprised if BTC heads up from here but will respond accordingly if it does. Next week BTC should show us its cards IMO and it should be easier to see where its heading

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The idea still remains in tact...add patience :)

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Been out of town...here is my current thoughts. Of course this could change if BTC volume doesn't increase. Is 54k the next stop or will we head back down? Very curious times as usual with BTC

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updated my lines and targets slightly ...let's see... volatility is showing up

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another thought...

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Been away ...here is my current thought.

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I also wonder if BTC is going to make a run very soon and then ALT season will occur for 20 days or so in April before deciding to head back down in May possibly?

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Maybe something like this...

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Give it a few days...a reversal is in play IMO

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I'm going to play this like a run up to the mid 53k area and then a drop by end of April back down to the 40k area before support and accumulation begins before the next run up IMO.

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still my viewpoint ...

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Looking back at Jan 25, 2020...some similarities here. I added in the same "top" time frame for fun (19 days). This would give ALTS time to do their thing IMO. The downside is if BTC truly follows what it did then, it means a brutal drop down to 29k but that was because of Covid which can be looked at as an outlier. 40k is still where I am targeting so the 38% fib for a typical handle for the cup idea. I assume BTC will find support there and would resume its uptrend.

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I am expecting some volume to pick up here for BTC heading to the purple line and then a pullback before resuming up...let's see what happens

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I feel a little crazy right now but this is what I still see...

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37k then 29k? Who knows. This is why I should have stopped posting on this idea. Such is bitcoin

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Are the powers that be gonna land the plane nice and soft with a slow take off or will there be some acceleration to this downtrend? How about tax day for a bottom :). It is boring

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The 15th is good Friday as well as tax day...will BTC die and "rise" again? lol

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so boring ...

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maybe it drops down to stronger support before bouncing a bit ...needs to buy more time to align with the US markets IMO

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Is it time for BTC to drop? We wait...its not done IMO. One more drop down before any substantial bounce.

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going as planned so far...kind of eerie

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Cooking up an Adam and Eve pattern?

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I'm going to play it like a deeper drop from the head on the neck line so to create a higher low when coming out of the head and shoulders which for BTC usually results in a bullish move up IMO. This would pair nicely with my Dow diamond pattern bottom...let's see

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Maybe it doesn't drop quite so deep as what I have shown above...maybe more like this...we should find out today and definitely by tomorrow IMO although timing is hard to predict...probably the Dow will close low today and after market close BTC will drop to its destination maybe before 7pm when futures open? I'm guessing futures will open positive to stop the bleeding and some good news will come out to prop the market back up for a couple of months. Just a thought...

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well its hard to know the right angle but here is an update

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So much for 1-2 days ...ugh. I'll give it 4-6 more days to drop back down to the neck line. I hope it happens sooner but it would seem more waiting is in the cards.

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Different idea...down to the 34.5k-34.9k area completing the symmetry for the Adam and Eve in the next 4-5 days? Seems like it to me but we shall see

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Hmm...maybe we are ready for a move up. Let's see

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It appears that BTC is going to head back down to the low 38k area in the next 2-3 days..let's see

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It may be ready to go ...let's see what DJI and DXY do

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looks more like low 38k region at the moment

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Will 38k area hold? Will we see a dump down to 35k over the weekend. All eyes on DJI IMO and if it can hold 33.1k area. Let's see

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Down more the next days after a little rise IMO...

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no up...its heading to its target ...ugly weekend most likely but the day is not over...

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It would seem to me that a big drop is coming in the next week...could be tomorrow or it could take its time but its coming. It seems more likely that the drop will be very hard so we can get a wick down to 22k possibly. Be ready to get a discount IMO

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I am adding more time to my estimate ...Its looking now like the middle of June before any big rally begins IMO...we shall see

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my thoughts...

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update...

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I'm back to thinking a bit more down ...if DJI moves down 4% like I think then BTC will definitely move down 8% as sensitive as it has been to DJI drops IMO but let's see ...I think its a good buying opportunity on the drop...

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Can BTC hold this level? perhaps ...let's see

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If BTC can hold this level I would expect something like this

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It looks like its holding. DXY going down, DJI going up...finally up for a bit

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This is a rough ride but maybe just maybe this will play out...

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Just my current thoughts ...

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BTC going down to its target in the next week or two IMO

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tricky BTC ...let's see which route

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slight update ...who can know the path

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fascinating turn of events...dow is heading to its target... will it bounce tomorrow or go down more? If it goes down more (1.7-2%) to its target it will be a very ugly weekend for BTC IMO but let's see. good luck!

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Ugly weekend ...bounce or no bounce? We shall see

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LOL I wasn't around for the last hour of the Dow closing so I couldn't post...ugly weekend

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does an aggressive move down mean an aggressive move up? we shall see but this is what I suspect

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which path? I think a little hop up before the last leg down...

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DJI hit bottom, DXY - double top IMO ...BTC is ready to go finally IMO. I wonder if it will sputter out of the start gate or take off and start sprinting. I really don't think anymore down but its BTC, anything is possible...closing the idea

Trade closed manually

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elliott77

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elliott77