Well now BTC is weaker than anticipated. I expected a stronger breakout from the falling wedge, however it seems I overestimated BTC.
The problem is the high longs: It looked as if shorts would increase again, but this is not the case.
Together with the extremely weak breakout, I think that the chances for new lows directly, without bounce from here, are starting to increase.
I cannot put exact percentages out, but my feeling says about 70/30 for dumps/bounce.
Target is around the 2k area.
We shall then see if we get a good bounce. If not, then BTC is indeed headed for 980-1200 USD sometime later this year.
The problem is the high longs: It looked as if shorts would increase again, but this is not the case.
Together with the extremely weak breakout, I think that the chances for new lows directly, without bounce from here, are starting to increase.
I cannot put exact percentages out, but my feeling says about 70/30 for dumps/bounce.
Target is around the 2k area.
We shall then see if we get a good bounce. If not, then BTC is indeed headed for 980-1200 USD sometime later this year.
Note
On bitstamp, the falling wedge is still intact:Normally, falling wedges mostly break out to the upside, but btc looks so weak, I don't know if it will manage to do so.
Note
This is crazy, BTC is pushing it to the limit, being in this falling wedge probably until the very last second:Note
Note
Now, will the wedge break to the upside or downside? The still high longs favor the downside, the falling wedge however normally being a more bullish sign. Mixed signals, as always. We'll just have to wait for a significant breakout.Note
Finally the wedge breaking to the upside, or again a failed attempt?Note
Break to the upside confirmed, the break to the downside has been averted !
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.