Yesterday’s analysis/position: Remained confident in my short position due to being overbought in a bear market. The follows indicators showed overbought conditions: 8 on the daily sell setup, resistance cluster from: trendline, 128 day MA, 20 week MA, the top of the daily Bollinger Band and the MA from the weekly BB. The RSI and the Stoch are overbought. Stop loss was triggered at $7,826 when we broke horizontal and trend resistance.
Patterns: Wycoff Accumulation; great post from CarpeNoctom here and here
Horizontal support and resistance: weak R: $8,376 strong R: $8,650 weak S: $8,150 strong S should be waiting at $7,600 - $7,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Small rally of 20,000 support. Currently forming bearish doji.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +12.25% 26: +16.81%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +21.92% 128: +7.69%. Flattening out and 50 just started to angle upwards (bullish). 50 week MA is acting as resistance at $8,366
FIB’s: 0.382 = $8,448 is being tested for resistance 0.236 = $5,786
Candlestick analysis: Bearish spinning top on 4h.
Ichimoku Cloud: First kumo breakout since 4/23. Just had a bullish kumo twist. Bullish TK' cross. 3d is posturing for bullish TK' cross and cloud is apart of resistance cluster.
TD’ Sequential: Green 2 on the weekly setup and 10 on the countdown. Green 9 on the daily sell setup. Green 5 on the 12h.
Visible Range: 1d shows largest volume profile at $7,720. 3 month shows large volume profile at $7,400 - $7,600 and $9,300. 1y shows largest volume profile from $8,225 - $8,900
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +6.31% 24h: +6.96% 1w: +21.87% 2w: +29.89% 1m: +42.66%
Bollinger Bands: Hard to believe how far outside the top daily band we are. Is this because of the ETF news? 1w and 1m are looking healthy and in the upper half of the band.
Trendline: Broke it yesterday
Daily Trend: bullish af'
Fractals: Has broken 7 up fractals on most recent move. Next one is $8,609. Down just printed at $7,176
On Balance Volume: Div’ has been resolved.
Chaikin Money Flow: Div' has been resolved. Higher low and higher high. Back above 0.05.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Oscillators = Neutral MA’s = Strong Buy Summary = Buy
RSI: > 70 for the first time in 2018
Stoch: Bounced off 80 and made a bullish re cross.
Summary: Resistance at $8,350 will be coming from: 0.382 FIB, Daily 9 on the sell setup, visible range volume profile (aka prior support turned into resistance) and the 50 week MA. The daily cloud has not been this bullish since the bear market began, nor has the RSI. The divergences in the OBV and CMF are no longer there which tells me that there is strength behind this move. If we can breakthrough $8,500 then I will be fully expecting a move to $10,000. However we are +42.66% in the last month and a pullback and/or days of consolidation is expected before breaking $8,500. A pullback to the 12 EMA is expected at a minimum. I will be sitting on the sidelines for the foreseeable future after getting stopped out on my short yesterday.
Patterns: Wycoff Accumulation; great post from CarpeNoctom here and here
Horizontal support and resistance: weak R: $8,376 strong R: $8,650 weak S: $8,150 strong S should be waiting at $7,600 - $7,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Small rally of 20,000 support. Currently forming bearish doji.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +12.25% 26: +16.81%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +21.92% 128: +7.69%. Flattening out and 50 just started to angle upwards (bullish). 50 week MA is acting as resistance at $8,366
FIB’s: 0.382 = $8,448 is being tested for resistance 0.236 = $5,786
Candlestick analysis: Bearish spinning top on 4h.
Ichimoku Cloud: First kumo breakout since 4/23. Just had a bullish kumo twist. Bullish TK' cross. 3d is posturing for bullish TK' cross and cloud is apart of resistance cluster.
TD’ Sequential: Green 2 on the weekly setup and 10 on the countdown. Green 9 on the daily sell setup. Green 5 on the 12h.
Visible Range: 1d shows largest volume profile at $7,720. 3 month shows large volume profile at $7,400 - $7,600 and $9,300. 1y shows largest volume profile from $8,225 - $8,900
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +6.31% 24h: +6.96% 1w: +21.87% 2w: +29.89% 1m: +42.66%
Bollinger Bands: Hard to believe how far outside the top daily band we are. Is this because of the ETF news? 1w and 1m are looking healthy and in the upper half of the band.
Trendline: Broke it yesterday
Daily Trend: bullish af'
Fractals: Has broken 7 up fractals on most recent move. Next one is $8,609. Down just printed at $7,176
On Balance Volume: Div’ has been resolved.
Chaikin Money Flow: Div' has been resolved. Higher low and higher high. Back above 0.05.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Oscillators = Neutral MA’s = Strong Buy Summary = Buy
RSI: > 70 for the first time in 2018
Stoch: Bounced off 80 and made a bullish re cross.
Summary: Resistance at $8,350 will be coming from: 0.382 FIB, Daily 9 on the sell setup, visible range volume profile (aka prior support turned into resistance) and the 50 week MA. The daily cloud has not been this bullish since the bear market began, nor has the RSI. The divergences in the OBV and CMF are no longer there which tells me that there is strength behind this move. If we can breakthrough $8,500 then I will be fully expecting a move to $10,000. However we are +42.66% in the last month and a pullback and/or days of consolidation is expected before breaking $8,500. A pullback to the 12 EMA is expected at a minimum. I will be sitting on the sidelines for the foreseeable future after getting stopped out on my short yesterday.
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emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.