I haven't formulated an idea for lower prices and remain objectively neutral/long. Not because the market can't break downwards but I am personally yet to identify a viable structure that will drive price lower.
Mapping and overlaying some typical structures at our current price range with line-chart. A lot going on here but basically it identifies:
CONTINUATION PATTERNS:
..H&S (Blue - Bearish) - I'm not entertaining the H&S bearish pattern as structural not clear and negative targets make no sense.
..Descending Triangle (Red - Indecisive) - Highlighted in red this pattern is still viable but remove the wicks the formation is not clear. I would expect to see more price action early stages / bottom left side allowing for a clearer triangle formation. Bearish targets would be $4k region but the formation is indecisive and often breaks upwards potential resulting here in a Double Top.
..Bull Flag (Orange - Bullish) pattern from Jan included to illustrate the structure and resulting in exact targets of $57k.
REVERSAL PATTERNS:
..Descending Wedge (Green - Bullish) - Highlighted in Green this pattern formation is clear. Indicates break and retest behaviour on the topside. It also support the current ALT rally - the 50 Day MA is tested and exceeded in some cases. Whilst this may avoid lower prices it doesn't necessarily have to guarantee a rocket to the moon, especially at this limited incline - Target would be around $40k and more sideways action for the next few months is possible before a bigger move up possible end of year - supporting the Super Cycle theory.
The only pattern I see here clearly is the Descending Wedge with a bull div on daily RSI, momentum swinging bullish a pick-up in money flow - Hence why I am currently fully invested and remain positive on price until BTC breaks $31k. Perhaps I missed one?
Besty, Hard Forky
Other formations considered but not featured due to lack of structure include Bearish Rectangle, Bearish Pennant.
Mapping and overlaying some typical structures at our current price range with line-chart. A lot going on here but basically it identifies:
CONTINUATION PATTERNS:
..H&S (Blue - Bearish) - I'm not entertaining the H&S bearish pattern as structural not clear and negative targets make no sense.
..Descending Triangle (Red - Indecisive) - Highlighted in red this pattern is still viable but remove the wicks the formation is not clear. I would expect to see more price action early stages / bottom left side allowing for a clearer triangle formation. Bearish targets would be $4k region but the formation is indecisive and often breaks upwards potential resulting here in a Double Top.
..Bull Flag (Orange - Bullish) pattern from Jan included to illustrate the structure and resulting in exact targets of $57k.
REVERSAL PATTERNS:
..Descending Wedge (Green - Bullish) - Highlighted in Green this pattern formation is clear. Indicates break and retest behaviour on the topside. It also support the current ALT rally - the 50 Day MA is tested and exceeded in some cases. Whilst this may avoid lower prices it doesn't necessarily have to guarantee a rocket to the moon, especially at this limited incline - Target would be around $40k and more sideways action for the next few months is possible before a bigger move up possible end of year - supporting the Super Cycle theory.
The only pattern I see here clearly is the Descending Wedge with a bull div on daily RSI, momentum swinging bullish a pick-up in money flow - Hence why I am currently fully invested and remain positive on price until BTC breaks $31k. Perhaps I missed one?
Besty, Hard Forky
Other formations considered but not featured due to lack of structure include Bearish Rectangle, Bearish Pennant.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.