Long

Updated

Bitcoin's potential path to exiting Bear Market/Season

Seeking a bounce around here for Bitcoin, otherwise not looking to great if it fully breaks through below.
BTC

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Bitcoin moving very well on the path I set 5 hours ago. However, I'm being cautious of the sharp rise and slightly suspicious orderbook. Will continue to monitor.

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's price may continue up here, however I'm converting some BTC and Alts into Fiat VERY short term (not suggesting you should), as I feel we've had a very good consistent run so far, and also because I bought in at the bottom and made very good profit today. (Chart is a guess)

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Please also note that the count on this chart is a bit weird to me, as there probably should be 5 small sub-waves inside of the first A subwave.

I'm simply taking a bit of profits since I've had awesome 1-day gains since buying Alts at the bottom and simply holding. (+10% gains)

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BTC 3.7% Dump in 1 minute... :/ Thankfully I was out all of my positions just minutes ago (when I posted my previous tweet). Bitcoin

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Yup, like I said in this previous comment: "this chart is a bit weird to me, as there probably should be 5 small sub-waves inside of the first A subwave".
We got a 5th wave moving up.
Still sold at near today's high in good profits.
Never be greedy trying to catch the exact highs or lows.

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I'm seeing something like this. My re-entry target may be ~$9059 (+/- $150). Will ladder buys. I'll also set a similar range to re-enter Altcoins.
Off to sleep for now. :)

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Sudden pump pushed price temporarily off my B-C target, however we got there one way or the other after this dump.

We could well go lower to ~$8800, however I re-entered my BTC and Altcoin positions for now, as I am in profits from this move.

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Fell into both of my support zones and stalled there for quite a bit, until one more unexpected drop down. Bitcoin kept forming Bull Flags or Pennants, not enough Buy pressure. Waiting this out and not trading right now, I do expect some reversal.

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Viewing #Bitcoin on a 4hr chart, it seems odd to me that we would continue downward without some reversal soon. Seeing it now on the 4hr scale, I guess today's action isn't unreasonable (I drew this path over a day ago). Waiting for reversal rather than selling into fiat now.

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My current Technical Analysis wave count.
The market is very confusing with lots of manipulation at this time, so let's take things one step/wave at a time. :)

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Looks like #Bitcoin followed the path of my Bearish scenario posted 3-5 days ago.
I'm seeking a short reversal to around the ~$8450 range, followed by one last wave down to ~$7300.

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If we can get a regular correctional wave up without any tricky surprises. :)
#Bitcoin ~$8475 (short term before likely last wave down).

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(Posted minutes ago):
C-wave not looking very healthy here... Could be truncated. May go down any moment.

pbs.twimg.com/media/DYSgXA6V4AA_9jG.jpg

Already dropped from that point.

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The moment we saw wave-C failure/truncation, the ~$8475 correction target looked very unlikely.
I am however wondering if we have actually completed wave-3 downward. This down-trend we are currently on is difficult to count. Will try re-counting in a bit.

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I'm considering the possibility that we are actually still on wave 3 (may have just ended it) and may see a slight correction soon.
Will update with chart in a bit.

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A wave-4 is clearly still missing before we reach the end of this impulse wave. It looks like wave-3 stretched to the 1.618 Fib level (Trend-Based Extension), $7720; the price recently hit exactly there. I think it's reasonable to see a slight correction to ~$8140 soon.

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A small tick down is possible to complete a very minor subwave-5. However, I don't feel there should be a heavy downtrend until there is a slight correction to above $8000.
Just my opinion. The market is very manipulated these days, so be cautions.

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#Bitcoin - We ended wave-3 right on point with my call @7620.
Rebounded strongly to the upper edge of my target range @8380.
I believe we are now moving down the B wave and could bounce around 7900, to point C ~8520 (but note the target range).

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- Just updating my chart with a very *rough* time-line estimate of trend changes for today (so you don't have to sit staring at the price all day).

~3-5 hours till point-B (~7900)
~10-16 hours till point-C (~8520)

It's a good idea to set your own price alerts and peek in at the live charts every now and then.

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I am wondering if we could have possibly already completed an ABC structure for wave-4. Points B and C are very much within my targets set hours ago, however the timeline is very short. We'll need to see how reacts next, I'll update when I have more confirmation.

I'm not yet throwing out my previous timeline/path, but we'll have to observe the price action for a bit more to get a better picture.
These waves are tricky to count.
(Will be back in a bit)

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We seem to be currently right on time for my target B, although the path of wave-A to get there was different and very strange.
I don't yet know for sure whether this is completion of wave-A or wave-C.
We'll have to see how the price reacts if/when we get into my target range.

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Just to be clear again, it's entirely possible that we may have completed the ABC wave of wave-4. (Very difficult to count)
If that is the case, we could head lower right past my $7900 mark.
To be on the safe side, you may consider waiting for a definite rebound (after the next low is found) before entering $BTC.

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Bitcoin looking more and more Bullish, seems to be aiming for my target C at ~$8500.
We did reach my low point at $7940.
Rebound looks positive so far.

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I'm currently considering a target of 8385 (max 8625) for Bitcoin at point-C (end of wave 4).
Followed by a down-trend to ~7200 to finish wave-5.
This wave-C may unfortunately be truncated (short), and could be reached within 2-3 hours.

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(~8385 Bitcoin target could be met very soon)

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5th wave looks a bit odd. Possible 5th wave failure?
Be cautious here.

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I was wondering why wave-3 never retraced properly (and was suspecting we didn't complete wave-3).
It has now properly retraced to its 0.786 fibb level.
A fifth wave up to my target is still possible.
(Very odd wave-3 btw)

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I exited my BTC Long position for now (sell), mostly because I need to get to sleep, but also because the price movement has been week for the 5th wave.
We need some sustained upward movement from here if my target is still to be reached. Do be safe and consider taking profits.

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Note that we did tap the bottom range of my target (8300) twice.
Was looking for a higher final wave, but this will just have to do for me for now.
Still a nice small price swing from 7900.

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Looks like my targets were met.
I called for a 7940 low of point-B, followed by a target of 8385 (max 8625) for point-C.
We got right about to my max point so far.

Said we needed a strong push very soon to meet target, and it came shortly after.

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I did stop out a bit early, as I mentioned I had to get to sleep.
Didn't want to risk falling short of point-C sell order, and get caught in a down-trend to ~7200.
Was already in profit. There's always another day to make more profit. :)

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It's still "possible" that wave-5 of C still has one more small subwave-5 to come, however the risk to reward of entering now doesn't seem favourable.

The 5th wave already looks quite artificial and pumped, pushing it higher than expected.

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Bitcoin - We've now broken past the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibb levels of subwave-5. Down-trend appears to be coming into play, as is my next target.

My last target for the bottom of wave-5 was ~$7200. Will update as we progress.

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Still within the range of being a subwave-2 at the moment.
Within a short while, with a decisive break in either direction, we'll have more confirmation of the next trend.

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Bitcoin formed a symmetrical triangle which has the ability to break out in either direction. Yet to see if it holds, but at this rate, it is possible.
Target may be ~8600. Will look into this better soon.

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Next movements need to be watched closely. Another determined pump upward like that would push is into a 5th-subwave for wave-4 (zoomed out, 1hr chart). In this case, it should be a temporary detour to a target of ~8725.
Either way, the downtrend ~7200 target still stands.

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Just woke to see that BTC did break downwards, on path with my main count.
We may be looking at a quick bounce to ~8060 for wave-4, before continuing to wave-5, which currently looks like it could end at around 7500.
Will update further in a while.

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Possible that subwave-3 isn't finished?
That would then indeed put us closer my original wave-5 end target of 7200.
Difficult to see that as being subwave-4, and at this point, rebounding to target at 4 seems unlikely.
Will continue to observe.

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IF this happens to be the end of subwave-3, could see a small rebound to ~8000. Otherwise, this could very well be leg-1 of subwave-5 already, and the price can continue crashing down.
I DON'T recommend to most taking this small play safer to wait for the end target ~7300.

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Well.. we did just hit my 8000-8050 small swing target.. lol.
Though the price movement is a bit strange. Will have to observe how this plays out.

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"Possible" to have another small wave up here before downtrend, to complete ABC of subwave-4.
I still don't really recommend these chancy trades for most. Highly volatile.
Just wanted to share.

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Strange structure/count to end wave-4, but I guess it could be because we pumped so quickly initially. Break to downside confirms we are on wave-5.
Will recalculate and post my estimate wave-5 end target in a little bit.

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#Bitcoin - We may be very near to completing wave-5 (if not already). My current ending target is: 6400 to 6600

(I am leaning towards a bullish uptrend after this target, however we will need to assess what the market looks like at that point)

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I entered back into for now.

AndrewEDavis

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AndrewEDavis

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