Bitcoin has just established a lower high in the 117K area. While this is a bearish sign for intraday time frames, the broader structure has yet to confirm a change. The change I am looking for is the price overlap of the 108K area. The 112 to 113 support area while some what broken, has not followed through yet. IF price stays in this range and manages to say above 108K, then this can still qualify as a wave 4. IF 108K breaks, then this confirms that the 5 wave structure is likely complete. If that's that case, the bigger picture outlook becomes more bearish.
The bearish scenario I am referring to is the broader Wave 2. Keep in mind, if this is the case, it can take a very long time to play out (months, years). And a series of catalysts would likely be in play. We have nothing like that yet. Also keep in mind, Bitcoin follows the Nasdaq, with lower interest rates, and easier monetary policy on the horizon, tech stocks are likely to benefit which should be a positive. Not a strong argument fundamentally. This is why if you are considering the short side, it is best to work on small time frames and keep risk tight in my opinion.
While any pull back is tempting to buy, this one is tricky because of the conflicting situation. 5 waves may be complete which means the pullbacks from here are more likely to break. Especially support levels that are obvious like 113K. Either work on smaller time frames like 1H or 4H and expect a smaller bite upon a signal confirmation, OR wait for the next level like the 105K to 108K area support for a swing trade with greater potential. Buy signals that confirm between 112 and 108K area could look to the 115 to 118K area for profit potential. It is touch to calculate when there is no confirmation on the chart.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
The bearish scenario I am referring to is the broader Wave 2. Keep in mind, if this is the case, it can take a very long time to play out (months, years). And a series of catalysts would likely be in play. We have nothing like that yet. Also keep in mind, Bitcoin follows the Nasdaq, with lower interest rates, and easier monetary policy on the horizon, tech stocks are likely to benefit which should be a positive. Not a strong argument fundamentally. This is why if you are considering the short side, it is best to work on small time frames and keep risk tight in my opinion.
While any pull back is tempting to buy, this one is tricky because of the conflicting situation. 5 waves may be complete which means the pullbacks from here are more likely to break. Especially support levels that are obvious like 113K. Either work on smaller time frames like 1H or 4H and expect a smaller bite upon a signal confirmation, OR wait for the next level like the 105K to 108K area support for a swing trade with greater potential. Buy signals that confirm between 112 and 108K area could look to the 115 to 118K area for profit potential. It is touch to calculate when there is no confirmation on the chart.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
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I hosted ICTC 2025: whitebit.com/m/ICTC-2025
Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
LIVE Day Trades: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
LIVE Day Trades: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.