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#btcusd - bitcoin
comment: Neutral since bears fumbled it again. Range is clear, don’t have much else to say about this. Bulls want 113k+ and bears need a strong daily close below 100k for more downside.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Bulls are still hopeful, that’s why we are still above 110k but the next touch could break it and I doubt many will hold long or scale into new ones there. Best bulls can get right now is to go sideways for longer and stay above 100k. I mean… Staying above 100k is as bullish as it get’s if you be honest. Same as last week since nothing has changed for the bulls. Trading range since mid May.
Invalidation is a strong daily close below 100k
bear case: Bears fumbled it again. Strong daily close below 100k or we won’t go lower. Right now odds favor the bears to go down from 107k to 100k but need more selling pressure.
Invalidation is above 110k
short term: As neutral as can be.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-29: Strong daily close below 100k will be the confirmation for more downside. First target below 100k is 97k the breakout retest and after that is the 50% retracement around 93k. I have no bullish for the next weeks/months. Once the gap to 97k closes we are likely in a bear trend again and I expect to hit at least 85k over the summer.
#btcusd - bitcoin
comment: Neutral since bears fumbled it again. Range is clear, don’t have much else to say about this. Bulls want 113k+ and bears need a strong daily close below 100k for more downside.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Bulls are still hopeful, that’s why we are still above 110k but the next touch could break it and I doubt many will hold long or scale into new ones there. Best bulls can get right now is to go sideways for longer and stay above 100k. I mean… Staying above 100k is as bullish as it get’s if you be honest. Same as last week since nothing has changed for the bulls. Trading range since mid May.
Invalidation is a strong daily close below 100k
bear case: Bears fumbled it again. Strong daily close below 100k or we won’t go lower. Right now odds favor the bears to go down from 107k to 100k but need more selling pressure.
Invalidation is above 110k
short term: As neutral as can be.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-29: Strong daily close below 100k will be the confirmation for more downside. First target below 100k is 97k the breakout retest and after that is the 50% retracement around 93k. I have no bullish for the next weeks/months. Once the gap to 97k closes we are likely in a bear trend again and I expect to hit at least 85k over the summer.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.