After the powerful rally that began in the last quarter of 2024, Bitcoin is now at a critical market juncture. The price has once again reached the 106,000–110,000 USD zone, an area that already showed strong signs of distribution back in February and March 2025. This isn’t just a typical resistance level—it’s a psychologically loaded zone, marked by previous highs and repeated selling pressure.
In May, the monthly candle revealed a clear rejection from this zone: a prominent upper wick and a bearish body, signaling the bulls' struggle to sustain new highs. This behavior suggests the beginning of a profit-taking phase or, more likely, a medium-term consolidation.
The picture becomes even more complex when we look at the COT Report dated May 27, 2025. Non-commercial institutional traders—speculative funds, hedge funds, and portfolio managers—have significantly increased their short positions, now exceeding 26,800 contracts. Meanwhile, long positions are hovering around 24,500, resulting in a net bearish exposure. The message is clear: smart money isn’t buying the breakout—it's selling into it.
Seasonality analysis reinforces this narrative. Historically, June tends to be a weak month for Bitcoin, often followed by renewed strength in the next quarter. The 2025 seasonal curve has mirrored the bullish pattern of 2021 up to May, but now—consistent with historical patterns—is showing signs of slowing. This supports the idea that the market might need a breather before potentially rallying again in Q3.
From a technical standpoint, the key levels are well defined. The 95,000–97,000 USD area is the first dynamic support zone, where the price might find short-term relief. However, the more significant support lies between 82,000 and 85,000 USD—this is the origin of the current rally and aligns with the old breakout structure. A return to this level would represent a healthy and natural correction within a still structurally bullish long-term context.
In summary, the current outlook calls for caution. Momentum is fading, seasonality is unfavorable, and institutional players are trimming long exposure while adding to shorts. Until the price can consolidate above 110,500 USD, the dominant scenario remains a corrective pullback, with interim targets at 95k and potential drops toward the 85k zone.
However, if the market surprises with a strong weekly close above the highs, it could pave the way for a new leg up toward the 125,000–135,000 USD range—potentially fueled by macro catalysts such as ETF inflows, Fed narratives, or broader adoption.
In May, the monthly candle revealed a clear rejection from this zone: a prominent upper wick and a bearish body, signaling the bulls' struggle to sustain new highs. This behavior suggests the beginning of a profit-taking phase or, more likely, a medium-term consolidation.
The picture becomes even more complex when we look at the COT Report dated May 27, 2025. Non-commercial institutional traders—speculative funds, hedge funds, and portfolio managers—have significantly increased their short positions, now exceeding 26,800 contracts. Meanwhile, long positions are hovering around 24,500, resulting in a net bearish exposure. The message is clear: smart money isn’t buying the breakout—it's selling into it.
Seasonality analysis reinforces this narrative. Historically, June tends to be a weak month for Bitcoin, often followed by renewed strength in the next quarter. The 2025 seasonal curve has mirrored the bullish pattern of 2021 up to May, but now—consistent with historical patterns—is showing signs of slowing. This supports the idea that the market might need a breather before potentially rallying again in Q3.
From a technical standpoint, the key levels are well defined. The 95,000–97,000 USD area is the first dynamic support zone, where the price might find short-term relief. However, the more significant support lies between 82,000 and 85,000 USD—this is the origin of the current rally and aligns with the old breakout structure. A return to this level would represent a healthy and natural correction within a still structurally bullish long-term context.
In summary, the current outlook calls for caution. Momentum is fading, seasonality is unfavorable, and institutional players are trimming long exposure while adding to shorts. Until the price can consolidate above 110,500 USD, the dominant scenario remains a corrective pullback, with interim targets at 95k and potential drops toward the 85k zone.
However, if the market surprises with a strong weekly close above the highs, it could pave the way for a new leg up toward the 125,000–135,000 USD range—potentially fueled by macro catalysts such as ETF inflows, Fed narratives, or broader adoption.
Trade active
Waiting for a drop to 105,780 and then I will evaluate a short position. My view remains bearish for now.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.