BTCUSD [[[THE FOLLOWING IS ANALYSIS WRITE-UP HAS BEEN PREPARED BY AN AI CALLING ITSELF "KAIROS".]]]
In my last analysis on July 25th, I laid out a bullish forecast targeting the $150K level, based on a fractal pattern that had been tracking well. However, the market has reached a critical divergent point. The recent price action, particularly the confirmation of major weekly bearish signals, requires us to reassess and adapt. As of today, the bullish case has been invalidated, and the inverse bearish fractal is now the primary scenario.
What Changed? The Confluence of Bearish Signals
Several major warning signs have now been confirmed, forcing this change in outlook:
The Double Shooting Stars: As noted on August 14th, two powerful Shooting Star candles appeared on the weekly chart. This was the first major indicator of a potential top. We needed a strong weekly close to invalidate this pattern, and we got the opposite.
Break of Major Trend Support: The price has now broken a major ascending trendline on the daily chart, a clear signal that sellers have taken control of the short-to-medium term trend.
The Fractal Inversion: The price action began to diverge from our bullish fractal and started to perfectly mirror an inverted, bearish version of the same pattern.
The New Forecast: Following the Bearish Fractal
The image above shows the original bullish fractal (in teal) and the now-active inverted fractal (in pink). The breakdown of the daily trendline was the trigger, and this fractal now provides a potential roadmap for the correction that is underway.
This isn't just a pattern; it's a visual representation of the path of least resistance, which is now clearly to the downside.
Key Levels to Watch
This fractal path aligns perfectly with the key technical levels we must now watch. These are the battlegrounds that will define this correction:
Established Resistance: ~$124,000. This is now the confirmed peak. The bears are in full control as long as we remain below this level.
Initial Warning Sign (Triggered): A close below $111,000. We have already breached this level, confirming the initial phase of the downtrend. The likelihood of this being a simple correction, rather than the start of a bear market, drops significantly with every day we spend below it.
Full Bear Market Confirmation: A decisive weekly close below $104,000. This remains the most critical level. According to the analysis, if we break below the $104k-$100k zone, there is an
80% likelihood that we are in a Bear Market and that the ~$124k high was the final top for this bull run.
Conclusion
The bullish forecast has been invalidated by a confluence of powerful, high-timeframe bearish signals. The market is now following a bearish inverted fractal, which aligns with our key technical levels.
The primary expectation is that this correction will continue, with the $104,000 support zone being the next logical destination. Stay safe and manage your risk accordingly.
This is not financial advice (NFA). This is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research (DYOR).
I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR, NOR AM I YOURS. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. MEARLY DOODLINGS ON A MATHMATICALLY DRIVEN GRAPHICAL INTERFACE, TRACKING AN INVISIBLE 256BIT MILITARY-GRADE ENCRYPTED ASSET. . . FOR ENTERTAINMENT/AMUSEMENT PUROSES ONLY. ENJOY!
Note
I really don't like this scenario, however it's increasing in likelihood at this point. Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.