BTC has recently broken below a key uptrend line that had been guiding price for some time. I’m watching for a potential backtest of that broken trendline, a rather classic move that could set the stage for a final upwards squeeze, possibly printing a quick higher high to trap late longs.
I’m watching the circled area closely as a potential exhaustion zone. Key levels and price action around the trendline will be critical, breaking of upwards trendlines after backtesting may mark the beginning of the larger unwind.
We could see multiple backtests of the broken trendline over time, with the trendline now likely acting as resistance.
Note: I’m publishing this idea simply to have a timestamped record. This post is my way of putting a clear marker in the sand. I’m not looking to debate or go deeper into the reasoning, and I generally won’t be responding to comments.
I’m watching the circled area closely as a potential exhaustion zone. Key levels and price action around the trendline will be critical, breaking of upwards trendlines after backtesting may mark the beginning of the larger unwind.
We could see multiple backtests of the broken trendline over time, with the trendline now likely acting as resistance.
Note: I’m publishing this idea simply to have a timestamped record. This post is my way of putting a clear marker in the sand. I’m not looking to debate or go deeper into the reasoning, and I generally won’t be responding to comments.
Trade active
Since publishing this idea, price action hasn’t played out exactly as expected. Bitcoin broke back above the previously broken trendline earlier than anticipated. In response, I began trimming my position, with an average exit around $105,000.Now that BTC is breaking down from the trendline again, I’ve started selling more aggressively. At the time of writing, approximately 65% of my Bitcoin position has been sold off. Although the original scenario didn’t unfold cleanly, the way price interacted with the trendline gave me enough signals to adjust my strategy and manage the trade based on developing conditions.
This remains more of a personal record than a discussion post, so I’ll continue using this space to log key updates as needed.
Note
Looking ahead, we could still see another backtest of the broken trendline. If such a move doesn’t happen until around August, that backtest could potentially fuel a final push to new all-time highs, acting as a trap to liquidate shorts before a much deeper reversal takes hold.Note
Bitcoin has now reached the target zone I have been watching closely. This is the area where I expect a potential top to form, based on the structure and context laid out in my previous posts.Within this zone, I’ve placed sell orders at different levels for the remainder of my position. I continue to view this area as a likely exhaustion point, though as always, timing and precision are difficult to pin down.
Just noting this quickly as I’ll be heading on vacation and won’t be actively managing the remainder of my position during that time.
As before, this post is primarily for personal tracking purposes rather than discussion.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.