Bitcoin bearish pin bar developing, which is a bearish sign at least for the short term. IF this candle closes and low is compromised, (107,400?) A sell signal will be in effect (see arrow). This will also confirm a failed break out (see trend line) of a multi month consolidation. The signal in question is an ideal setup for swing traders or day traders looking for aggressive shorts, while the broader trend is completely intact. A reasonable price objective for such a move is the 103K area which is basically the mid point of the consolidation and near the 102 to 100K support. While the market can potentially break lower than that, there is NO way to forecast such an event. Market confirms first, then expectations can be adjusted effectively.
The wave count has been adjusted on this chart. The current consolidation is likely the sub wave 4 of the broader 5 which means implies the trend is still bullish since the sub wave 5 of 5 is not in play yet. Maybe after this next retrace? The next bullish setup (around 103K?) may present a high probability swing trade opportunity on the long side possible over the next week or two.
Keep in mind, it is not a good idea to get married to any opinions. I don't care how bullish the fundamentals are, all it takes is an unexpected catalyst and this market retraces hard. A week ago we were flirting with 98K, today 108K. Levels and price action are a much more accurate gauge of where the market is likely to go on the short term, and more importantly offer greater insight into the potential reward and RISK.
I adjust my outlook constantly because I know that the MARKET is ALWAYS right. It offers guidance if you know how to listen and be flexible. "Outlook" can be categorized by time which helps to keep expectations inline with market intent. For example, reward and risk expectations for a swing trade (4H time frame) will be smaller compared to a position entered for investment (weekly time frame). Keeping these expectations separate will help you control risk in a much more optimal way compared to having a swing trade turn into an investment.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
The wave count has been adjusted on this chart. The current consolidation is likely the sub wave 4 of the broader 5 which means implies the trend is still bullish since the sub wave 5 of 5 is not in play yet. Maybe after this next retrace? The next bullish setup (around 103K?) may present a high probability swing trade opportunity on the long side possible over the next week or two.
Keep in mind, it is not a good idea to get married to any opinions. I don't care how bullish the fundamentals are, all it takes is an unexpected catalyst and this market retraces hard. A week ago we were flirting with 98K, today 108K. Levels and price action are a much more accurate gauge of where the market is likely to go on the short term, and more importantly offer greater insight into the potential reward and RISK.
I adjust my outlook constantly because I know that the MARKET is ALWAYS right. It offers guidance if you know how to listen and be flexible. "Outlook" can be categorized by time which helps to keep expectations inline with market intent. For example, reward and risk expectations for a swing trade (4H time frame) will be smaller compared to a position entered for investment (weekly time frame). Keeping these expectations separate will help you control risk in a much more optimal way compared to having a swing trade turn into an investment.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
I hosted ICTC 2025: whitebit.com/m/ICTC-2025
Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
LIVE Day Trades: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
LIVE Day Trades: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I hosted ICTC 2025: whitebit.com/m/ICTC-2025
Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
LIVE Day Trades: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
LIVE Day Trades: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.