BTCUSD looks like it just wrapped a clean ABC correction and kicked off a fresh 5-wave impulse. We’ve probably topped out on wave 1 heading into the weekend, Stoch RSI is flashing overbought, price is hitting resistance just under 108.3K, and we’re also seeing some bullish divergence creeping in.I’m expecting a pullback from here, ideally into that 0.5–0.618 retrace zone (103.2K–104.4K). That would line up well with the mid-channel and EMA support. From there, we could be set up for a proper wave 3 breakout (as long as we don't get any more surprise tariffs or wars).
Fed still leaning dovish into Q4, even with some Q3 inflation and tariff noise. Rate cut odds ramp into Sept/Dec, so bigger picture looks constructive. In my eyes, the longer the FED holds off on these cuts, the longer this cycle extends.
Key zones I’m watching:
Support: 105.3K > 103.2K > 100.8K
Resistance: 108.3K > 112K > 114.5K+
If we dip and hold structure, I’ll be watching for confirmation to load into wave 3.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.