BTCUSDT – Reaccumulation Breakout or Bearish S/R Flip?

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Timeframes: 1W • 1D • 4H
Structure: Wyckoff Reaccumulation nearing Phase E — but ATH is acting as resistance

🔹 WEEKLY OUTLOOK: Macro Structure Points to Markup
Last weekly candle closed above the reaccumulation Buying Climax (BC), showing bullish intent
Weekly upper Bollinger Band is rising toward 113k
RSI at 67, strong but not overbought
Structure suggests we’re entering Wyckoff Phase E

Weekly Targets:
🟢 TP1: 113,049 (Upper BB)
🟢 TP2: 116,199 (measured move)
🟢 TP3: 118,237 (Fib 0.66 extension)

🔹 DAILY OUTLOOK: Still Holding Above Reaccumulation Range
Multiple daily closes above the BU (backup) zone, but all below 110k ATH
RSI is strong (~66), and price is tracking near the upper BB, but volume is not convincing
Until a daily close above 110,000, breakout remains unconfirmed

🔹 4H OUTLOOK: Structure Valid, Momentum Rising
BU zone held; price made two lower lows followed by a higher high
RSI has reclaimed 57+, and volume is picking up modestly
4H structure looks like an early Phase E breakout attempt, but...

⚠️ Caution: Is This a Bearish S/R Flip?
While the broader Wyckoff structure suggests a transition into markup, we must also consider the bearish scenario:

BTC may be failing a support/resistance flip at 110k
All timeframes have rejected at or below 110k, despite multiple attempts
If we see a lower high under 109k + 1D close below 105,863 with red volume and RSI < 45 → this becomes a confirmed bull trap

📊 TL;DR:
BTC is structurally bullish — but we are at the final test zone.

🔓 Breakout confirmed: Daily close above 110k
🔒 Failure confirmed: Close below 105,863 + red volume + RSI breakdown

Stay nimble. This is either the last shakeout before markup… or the top of the range before reversal.

#Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Wyckoff #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Reaccumulation #Breakout #SupportResistance

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