BTC/USDT.P Rejection Confirmed? Eyeing Breakdown Toward 50% Fib
Bitcoin just lost two critical levels in rapid succession:
1️⃣ Value Area High ($106,331)
2️⃣ Previous Monthly High ($105,000)
We’re now closing candles back inside prior structure, showing signs of weakness and potential distribution at the highs.
📉 The Bearish Setup
Price is hovering above the 0.236 retracement. A break and daily close below this level could complete what looks to be the right shoulder of a developing head and shoulders pattern. The distance from head to neckline lines up with a projected move down toward the 50% Fibonacci level ($91,500) — which also aligns closely with the POC ($96,888) as an intermediate stop.
🎯 Targets:
• Neckline/Break Level: $102,800
• Mid-Target (POC): $96,888
• Main Target (0.5 Fib): $91,500
• Confluence zone lower: 0.618 to 0.68 (watch for reversals)
🧠 Context Notes:
• The current 2-leg rejection (~8% each) gives symmetry to the pattern
• High volume nodes around POC could act as reaction areas
• This short setup remains valid while price is closing below ~105k and failing to reclaim VAH
If this structure plays out, it’s a classic example of a failed breakout turning into a strong breakdown — the kind of move that catches late bulls off guard.
1️⃣ Value Area High ($106,331)
2️⃣ Previous Monthly High ($105,000)
We’re now closing candles back inside prior structure, showing signs of weakness and potential distribution at the highs.
📉 The Bearish Setup
Price is hovering above the 0.236 retracement. A break and daily close below this level could complete what looks to be the right shoulder of a developing head and shoulders pattern. The distance from head to neckline lines up with a projected move down toward the 50% Fibonacci level ($91,500) — which also aligns closely with the POC ($96,888) as an intermediate stop.
🎯 Targets:
• Neckline/Break Level: $102,800
• Mid-Target (POC): $96,888
• Main Target (0.5 Fib): $91,500
• Confluence zone lower: 0.618 to 0.68 (watch for reversals)
🧠 Context Notes:
• The current 2-leg rejection (~8% each) gives symmetry to the pattern
• High volume nodes around POC could act as reaction areas
• This short setup remains valid while price is closing below ~105k and failing to reclaim VAH
If this structure plays out, it’s a classic example of a failed breakout turning into a strong breakdown — the kind of move that catches late bulls off guard.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.