BTCUSDT.P Advanced Technical Analysis of Bitcoin's Structure – Current Situation on Smaller Timeframes
We notice a symmetrical triangle forming on the small timeframes (1-hour and 4-hour), centered in a critical area. Historically, when this price pattern forms, Bitcoin takes no more than three days to confirm its trend. Therefore, the close of the third-day candlestick will serve as a pivotal turning point.
🔹 Immediate Support: 103,400
🔹 Strong Support: 102,500 — a daily low + institutional liquidity zone
🔹 First Resistance: 105,600 — associated with a convergence of moving averages (EMAs)
🔹 Main Resistance: 106,700 — a crossover with the 200-period moving average, which can be described as the largest psychological barrier
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Possible Scenarios:
☑️ Positive Scenario:
If 105,600 is breached, we are expected to witness an upward movement targeting:
108,000
110,000
118,000 (potentially later)
✅ Catalysts:
Positive US economic data
Regulatory news supporting the markets (such as institutional entry and cryptocurrency regulations)
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⚠️ Negative Scenario:
If the 102,500 support level is broken, the path will be open to:
100,000
99,000 (strong psychological support area)
❗️ Potential Triggers:
Negative inflation data
Major geopolitical escalation (especially if it directly involves the United States)
🔴 Important Note: I'm not a proponent of trading based on news, but I'm including the US factor because it's the only one I consider truly influential in geopolitical analysis.
The US entering a full-scale war would prompt American investors (who represent about 5% of active traders) to withdraw immediately for fear of long-term repercussions.
🔻 America is making history now, and Trump is managing the situation expertly. He is likely to avoid getting involved in long-term conflicts, focusing on concluding deals and wars strategically.
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Current Sideways Trading:
Trading continues between the 103,400 and 105,600 levels within the symmetrical triangle.
The future direction will be determined by the following developments:
If the conflict ends and a deal is reached (especially if Iran surrenders), we will witness a strong upward breakout.
If the United States enters the war directly, we expect a downward breakout to levels that may reach 92,000.
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Technical Conclusion: 💎
Bitcoin is in a critical consolidation phase with a delicate balance between institutional selling pressure at 106,700 and strong buying demand at 102,500.
The next breakout will depend on:
1. A clear breakout of the triangle pattern
2. The strength of the liquidity accompanying the movement
3. Official US developments—regulatory or political
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Important Clarification:
❌ The recent decline is not directly related to the Iran-Israel war. Rather, it came as a result of:
1. Options expiry
2. Trump's statements about the possibility of direct US intervention, with the arrival of an aircraft carrier in the Middle East
🔍 A war between only two parties doesn't worry the market much, but US intervention is the decisive factor.
✅ America alone is the one that moves the markets.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.