BTCUSDT (BINANCE) – 4H
Thesis: Price has broken out of the descending channel (7/25–8/10). Holding above the upper boundary ~115,400 suggests a shift from corrective structure to potential trend continuation higher. A clean retest may offer the better R:R.
Key Levels
• Resistance: 119,200–120,000; 121,500–122,000; 123,800–124,500
• Support: 117,200–116,500; 115,400 (channel top / breakout line); 113,000; 111,000
Momentum/Signals
• MACD is above zero with expanding lines; histogram positive (could cool near resistance).
• RSI ~65 on 4H, rising yet not overbought—room higher, but prone to pullback if 70+.
Trade Ideas
• Long on retest: Look for acceptance above 115,400–116,000 after a pullback (wick + strong 4H close).
– Invalidation: 4H close back inside channel <115,400.
– Targets: 119,500–120,000 (T1), 121,500–122,000 (T2), 124,000 (T3).
• Breakout continuation: If price closes >119,200 with rising volume, consider momentum long.
– Invalidation: 4H close <118,200.
– Targets: 120,000 (T1), 121,500–122,000 (T2).
• Contrarian short (only if failed breakout): 4H close back below 115,400 and midline rejection.
– Targets: 113,000 (T1), 111,000 (T2).
– Invalidation: back above 116,300.
Risk Management
• Size for 1–2% account risk. Wait for 4H candle confirmation; avoid chasing into 120k supply.
• Weekend liquidity often creates wicks—plan entries around closes, not intrabar noise.
Context: A channel break often precedes a change of character; maintaining higher lows above 115.4k keeps the bullish case intact. Re-entry into the channel would negate.
Disclaimer: This is an analysis, not financial advice. Manage your own risk.
Thesis: Price has broken out of the descending channel (7/25–8/10). Holding above the upper boundary ~115,400 suggests a shift from corrective structure to potential trend continuation higher. A clean retest may offer the better R:R.
Key Levels
• Resistance: 119,200–120,000; 121,500–122,000; 123,800–124,500
• Support: 117,200–116,500; 115,400 (channel top / breakout line); 113,000; 111,000
Momentum/Signals
• MACD is above zero with expanding lines; histogram positive (could cool near resistance).
• RSI ~65 on 4H, rising yet not overbought—room higher, but prone to pullback if 70+.
Trade Ideas
• Long on retest: Look for acceptance above 115,400–116,000 after a pullback (wick + strong 4H close).
– Invalidation: 4H close back inside channel <115,400.
– Targets: 119,500–120,000 (T1), 121,500–122,000 (T2), 124,000 (T3).
• Breakout continuation: If price closes >119,200 with rising volume, consider momentum long.
– Invalidation: 4H close <118,200.
– Targets: 120,000 (T1), 121,500–122,000 (T2).
• Contrarian short (only if failed breakout): 4H close back below 115,400 and midline rejection.
– Targets: 113,000 (T1), 111,000 (T2).
– Invalidation: back above 116,300.
Risk Management
• Size for 1–2% account risk. Wait for 4H candle confirmation; avoid chasing into 120k supply.
• Weekend liquidity often creates wicks—plan entries around closes, not intrabar noise.
Context: A channel break often precedes a change of character; maintaining higher lows above 115.4k keeps the bullish case intact. Re-entry into the channel would negate.
Disclaimer: This is an analysis, not financial advice. Manage your own risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.