- BTC has bounced from local support (green zone) and is challenging the descending trendline.
- The price is now testing the red resistance zone and the upper boundary of the 1H MSS (market structure shift) box.
- Scenario A (Bullish):
— If BTC cleanly breaks the trendline and flips the 1H MSS box into support (with a strong close above), this is a trigger for a scalp long.
— Target for the move is the upper green box/previous high area near $122,000. - Scenario B (Bearish/Invalidation):
— If price is rejected at the red resistance and falls back below the green support box, risk of deeper pullback toward $116,000 increases.
BTC has shown resilience by quickly reclaiming support after a sweep lower, indicating strong demand. The market looks to be reloading for another push, with liquidity building up just below resistance. The setup favors a breakout if NY Open brings momentum. The flip of the 1H MSS box would confirm bullish intent. However, caution if the breakout fails — structure remains choppy and a failed breakout can trap late buyers.
Note
BTC Playbook: Win-Win Scenario
Best case:
BTC catches up, regains strength vs 
ETH → trend accelerates, new entries open up. Classic macro bull signal.Worst case:
Market pulls back, “dump” triggers fear. But every correction = opportunity. Reload BTC & top alts at support — don’t panic, plan the bid.
Mindset:
Corrections ≠ threat. They reset the board for strong hands.
Watch BTC/ETH rotation: if BTC leads, macro bulls win.
If it dumps, get greedy where it hurts.
Game plan:
Adapt to both phases. Add size on strength, scale in on weakness. Use the volatility — not the emotions.
Summary:
Either BTC leads or the dip gives new bargains. Both are setups for the next move. No fear, just execution.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Strategy #BuyTheDip #Rotation #GameTheory
Note
Usually, after such range-bound price action, the market likes to “shake out” late bulls and weak hands by sweeping range lows. The best setup is to wait for a fakeout/dip under the pre-week low support to trap shorts and shake out longs. If the support absorbs selling and prints a strong reversal, that’s the signal for a long position targeting a move back to range highs or new highs.
Trade active
The area around $113k is a textbook spot for bulls to step in, as it represents a high-timeframe imbalance created on the breakout of ATH. Sweeping previous lows into this zone offers optimal risk/reward for longs. However, if price fails to recover from this area, the bullish structure breaks, and caution is warranted. Waiting for a reaction at this level filters out weak setups and aligns with smart money concepts.
Note
Classic PO3 setup: after an extended range, the breakdown acts as a liquidity grab, sucking in shorts and triggering stops. If price reclaims the prior range low, expect a violent reversal as the market transitions from manipulation to expansion. The best setups often come from the most hated patterns—trade what you see, not what you feel.Note
CME GAP FILLED + PWL RECLAIMED = BULLISH!Note
The main objective this week is to add to my long position if we get a pullback into Friday's wick (the 114.3–115.7k region). Weekend lows likely aren’t safe — another sweep into the weekly FVG is fine, but that’s not my base case for now.
Swing Long Scenario:
Ideal add zone: 114.3–115.7k (Friday’s wick)
Main support: Weekly FVG (110.4–114.3k)
Invalidation: Close below the FVG
Upside Scenarios:
Short-term resistance around 121–121.5k — price might range here before a breakout.
If no new lows are made within this current consolidation, 128.5k is the next upside target.
Reasoning:
The setup remains bullish as long as the weekly FVG holds. I'm watching for a range expansion once consolidation resolves. If support fails, swing thesis invalidates and the higher timeframe context needs to be reassessed.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.