Is Bitcoin Overextended? Here's My Trade Plan If BTC Retraces!

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Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis 📝

🚀 Current Market Structure:
The daily BTC/USDT chart clearly shows a strong bullish trend, with price action recently making a significant upward move. The current candles are consolidating near the highs, suggesting a potential overextension after a parabolic rally. This often precedes a corrective phase, as buyers may take profits and new participants wait for a more favorable entry.

🔍 Wyckoff Perspective:
Your approach aligns with the Wyckoff Method, specifically looking for a retracement to the 50% level of the current swing. This would place the ideal entry zone around the $93,071 area, as marked on your chart. According to Wyckoff, after such a retrace, we should watch for an accumulation range—a period of sideways movement where smart money absorbs supply. The key signal to watch for is a "spring" (a false breakdown below the range), followed by a strong bullish breakout, confirming demand dominance.

🌐 Fundamental Backdrop:
Fundamentally, Bitcoin remains supported by several macro factors:

Institutional adoption continues, with ETFs and large funds increasing exposure.
The recent halving event has reduced new supply, historically a bullish catalyst.
Regulatory clarity in major markets (e.g., US, EU) is improving, reducing uncertainty. However, risks remain from potential regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic headwinds (such as interest rate hikes), and geopolitical tensions.

💬 Sentiment & Analyst Consensus:
Market sentiment is currently optimistic, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering in the "Greed" zone. Many analysts are calling for a healthy correction before the next leg up, echoing your expectation of a retrace. Some prominent voices suggest that a pullback to the $92,000–$94,000 range would be constructive, allowing for reaccumulation and a more sustainable rally.

📈 Technical Triggers to Watch:
Retrace to 50% Level: Monitor for price action around $93,071–$94,593.
Accumulation Range: Look for a period of low volatility and tight range after the retrace.
Spring & Breakout: A false breakdown below the range, quickly reclaimed, followed by a strong bullish candle, would be the classic Wyckoff entry trigger.

⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

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