Four Bullish Drivers Behind Bitcoin's Rally
(1) Institutional Capital Rampage: From Whale Holdings to Market Scarcity
- **BlackRock et al. as anchor investors**: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has ballooned to $71.9 billion, holding 660,000 BTC—equivalent to 3.1% of total circulating supply. Such "whale-level" positions not only provide liquidity support but also shatter traditional financial institutions' attitude toward crypto.
- **Accelerating OTC concentration**: OTC platform data shows Bitcoin inventory plunged from 166,500 coins at the start of the year to 137,400 coins, a 17.5% drop. This signals massive coins are shifting from exchanges to institutional custody, creating a "scarcity effect" analogous to apple prices surging due to supply shortages.
(2) Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Hot Money Inflows
- **Policy pivot-driven capital reallocation**: After Fed Governor Bowman signaled a possible July rate cut, CME futures now price in two 2025 rate cuts (up from one). Historical parallels: Bitcoin surged 42% in 6 months post-Fed's first 2019 rate cut (S&P 500 +12%), as low rates enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a "non-sovereign asset".
- **Diminishing opportunity costs**: A potential Fed rate cut would lower real yields (nominal rate - inflation). If 10-year Treasury real yields fall from 2.3% to 1.5%, the opportunity cost of holding gold/Bitcoin declines, pushing funds from bonds into risk assets.
(3) Regulatory Gate Opening: Chinese Brokerage Breaks New Ground
- **Guotai Junan International's milestone**: On June 24, Hong Kong's SFC approved its virtual asset trading services, making it the first Chinese-funded brokerage to gain such. This opens a "compliant channel" for mainland capital—post-announcement, its HK shares surged 101%, while OTC Bitcoin inventory dropped by 3,000 coins, indicating institutions are front-running liquidity inflows.
- **Financial infrastructure upgrade**: The service allows clients to trade BTC via traditional securities accounts, lowering entry barriers. Analogous to Chinese brokerages accessing gold ETFs in 2013, such channels typically trigger explosive incremental flows, expected to attract $1-2 billion from family offices initially.
(4) Technical "Golden Cross" Confirms Long-Term Trend
- **Key moving average resonance**: BTC recently completed a 50-day MA (102,300 USD) cross above 200-day MA (94,700 USD), forming a "golden cross". Backtesting 2019 and 2020 instances, this pattern preceded 58% average 6-month gains, though short-term pullbacks (10-15%) are common (e.g., June 2023 post-cross correction).
- **Strong support forming a safety net**: The 200-day MA now acts as dynamic support—pullbacks to ~95,000 USD would represent a "secondary buying opportunity at institutional cost bases", similar to housing prices finding support when breaking below moving averages.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
BTCUSDT BUY@106000~107000
SL:105000
TP:108000~109000
(1) Institutional Capital Rampage: From Whale Holdings to Market Scarcity
- **BlackRock et al. as anchor investors**: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has ballooned to $71.9 billion, holding 660,000 BTC—equivalent to 3.1% of total circulating supply. Such "whale-level" positions not only provide liquidity support but also shatter traditional financial institutions' attitude toward crypto.
- **Accelerating OTC concentration**: OTC platform data shows Bitcoin inventory plunged from 166,500 coins at the start of the year to 137,400 coins, a 17.5% drop. This signals massive coins are shifting from exchanges to institutional custody, creating a "scarcity effect" analogous to apple prices surging due to supply shortages.
(2) Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Hot Money Inflows
- **Policy pivot-driven capital reallocation**: After Fed Governor Bowman signaled a possible July rate cut, CME futures now price in two 2025 rate cuts (up from one). Historical parallels: Bitcoin surged 42% in 6 months post-Fed's first 2019 rate cut (S&P 500 +12%), as low rates enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a "non-sovereign asset".
- **Diminishing opportunity costs**: A potential Fed rate cut would lower real yields (nominal rate - inflation). If 10-year Treasury real yields fall from 2.3% to 1.5%, the opportunity cost of holding gold/Bitcoin declines, pushing funds from bonds into risk assets.
(3) Regulatory Gate Opening: Chinese Brokerage Breaks New Ground
- **Guotai Junan International's milestone**: On June 24, Hong Kong's SFC approved its virtual asset trading services, making it the first Chinese-funded brokerage to gain such. This opens a "compliant channel" for mainland capital—post-announcement, its HK shares surged 101%, while OTC Bitcoin inventory dropped by 3,000 coins, indicating institutions are front-running liquidity inflows.
- **Financial infrastructure upgrade**: The service allows clients to trade BTC via traditional securities accounts, lowering entry barriers. Analogous to Chinese brokerages accessing gold ETFs in 2013, such channels typically trigger explosive incremental flows, expected to attract $1-2 billion from family offices initially.
(4) Technical "Golden Cross" Confirms Long-Term Trend
- **Key moving average resonance**: BTC recently completed a 50-day MA (102,300 USD) cross above 200-day MA (94,700 USD), forming a "golden cross". Backtesting 2019 and 2020 instances, this pattern preceded 58% average 6-month gains, though short-term pullbacks (10-15%) are common (e.g., June 2023 post-cross correction).
- **Strong support forming a safety net**: The 200-day MA now acts as dynamic support—pullbacks to ~95,000 USD would represent a "secondary buying opportunity at institutional cost bases", similar to housing prices finding support when breaking below moving averages.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
BTCUSDT BUY@106000~107000
SL:105000
TP:108000~109000
Free signal channel ：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free signal channel ：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.