Bitcoin / TetherUS
Short
Updated

[SeoVereign] BITCOIN Bearish Outlook – June 29, 2025

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Hello,

This is Seobeorin, approaching technical analysis not as a result but as a prediction, from a realistic perspective.

I am presenting a bearish view on Bitcoin as of June 29, 2025.

If you refer to the Ethereum idea from June 27, 2025, you can confirm that I presented a bearish perspective on Ethereum at the time. The basis for that perspective is still valid, and we are currently waiting for the take-profit level to be reached. The reason I selected Ethereum at the time was because I believed that the downward pressure on Ethereum was relatively stronger than that on Bitcoin.

However, based on today’s Elliott Wave count on the Bitcoin chart, I now judge that Bitcoin is also likely to experience some short-term downward pressure. Therefore, I am presenting a short position idea on Bitcoin.

The first take-profit target is set near $106,056. Depending on future price movements, this take-profit target may be narrowed or expanded. I will continue to track this idea, and as it develops, I will align the reasoning accordingly to organize the thought process more clearly.

Thank you.
Trade active
snapshot
Hello, dear readers. This is Seovereign
The trading idea presented on June 30th has once again successfully reached all target prices.
Accordingly, in this update, I would like to explain in detail the thought process behind how I was able to predict this downward move in Bitcoin in advance.

I believe this analysis will serve as a particularly useful reference for those who are studying chart patterns. Since it is a case that can be applied in real trading, I encourage you to make good use of it in your learning.

First of all, the Elliott Wave Theory served as the primary basis for identifying the overall downward trend. As in the past, I interpreted the current phase as being in the latter part of the fifth wave in a bearish Elliott Wave structure, and judged that the market was entering a period of intensified downward pressure.

In the process of identifying precise entry points, I focused on two major technical bases.

The first was the confirmation of a diagonal (wedge) pattern. Diagonals typically appear in converging wave structures and often result in an overshooting fifth wave. In this case as well, the pattern appeared valid, and based on this, I was able to establish the first short position entry point.

The second was the 5-0 pattern. This pattern functions similarly to the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) of the Shark pattern, while also serving to identify a new trend reversal point. Particularly, as the overall analysis was already based on a bearish assumption, the formation of the 5-0 pattern served as additional confirmation for the short position.

By combining the macro-level direction predicted through Elliott Wave analysis with the specific confirmation of the diagonal and 5-0 patterns, I was able to successfully secure profits from this trading idea as well.

If this idea reaches the third take-profit level in the future, I will provide a further breakdown and supplementary explanation at that time.
Thank you, as always, for your continued support. I’ll see you in the next update.

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