- Bearish SFP printed on 4H / 8H / 12H / 1D at $103 345 – $104 985 after a parabolic ~$94 k → $104 k run and multiple rejections at $104 k–$106 k resistance.
- Trump tariff-cut announcement sparked a sharp spike into resistance that was quickly sold off, confirming heavy supply at $104 k – $106 k.
- Baseline plan: drop to 0.786 Fib ~$102 586, then 0.618 Fib ~$100 613, before a push toward the ATH ~$109 588.
Trade Setups
Short – SFP Breakdown
- Trigger: 4H close below $103 345
- Entry: ≈ $103 300 on retest
- SL: $105 500 (above swing high)
- TP1: 0.786 Fib ≈ $102 586 RR ≈ 0.7
- TP2: 0.618 Fib ≈ $100 613 RR ≈ 2.6
Long – Fib Rebound
- Trigger: Bullish reversal at 0.618 Fib / FVG cluster ≈ $100 613
- SL: $99 300 (below FVG)
- TP1: SFP top / range high ≈ $104 145 RR ≈ 2.7
- TP2: ATH ≈ $109 588 RR ≈ 6.8
Trade active
BTC is now below the SFP. A short position could be opened now, or a more cautious approach would be to wait for the current 4H/8H candle to close for confirmation. For now, everything is going perfectly as planned.Note
The setup is still valid and a everyone with a short position should still hold until we reach the 0.618 support.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.